Cuomo's primary opponent has picked up steam in his campaign, not just online, but also on the ground, and appears to be gaining in recent polls. His opponent holds a narrow lead in final polling that factors in ranked-choice voting. Mamdani is also a newer candidate city-wide which allows some voters to project onto him making him a viable alternative for a number of voters who might not rank him second. Cuomo, however, has been in politics for 25+ years and the scandal that led to his resignation as governor may have hardened views against him. https://pix11.com/news/politics/new-york-elections/final-nyc-mayor-poll-shows-mamdani-ahead-of-cuomo-in-ranked-choice-voting/
-0.003653
Relative Brier Score
2
Forecasts
0
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Yes
85%
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Why do you think you're right?
Files
Why might you be wrong?
Cuomo has high name recognition and experience in city, state, and federal politics which allows him to run a competent, efficient campaign. High-profile, Democratic establishment politicians have coalesced behind him which may sway enough voters to allow him to win the primary in the early rounds. https://www.commondreams.org/news/zohran-mamdani-mayor
Files
Why do you think you're right?
Absolutely not. The July 4th ambition to have the budget reconciliation bill passed was always an unrealistic, overly ambitious aspiration. The bill passed by an incredibly slim margin in the House and may not have gotten that far had Rep Elise Stefanie been confirmed as UN Ambassador and three Democratic members not passed before the vote. The Senate was always going to be a steeper climb owing to parliamentarian rulings that would force rewriting of the bill in ways that make it vulnerable to a filibuster AND that might erode support in the House. Even if votes started ASAP, there would be little time to reconcile differences between each chamber and get the bill to the President. https://www.bbc.com/news/articles/cx2498ekj21o
https://www.politico.com/news/2025/06/26/megabill-stuck-senate-parliamentarian-00428299
Why might you be wrong?
I doubt I will be, but this is such a high priority for the Republican party that should the Senate be able to pass any bill before the end of June, the House may simply accept the bill and rush it to the President to avoid political embarrassment.