Forecasted Questions
If a bilateral ceasefire or peace agreement in the Russo-Ukraine conflict goes into effect in 2025, how long will it last?
Forecast Count:
7 Forecasts
7 Forecasts
Question Ends:
Jan 01, 2026 05:00AM UTC
(23 days from now)
Jan 01, 2026 05:00AM UTC
(23 days from now)
Forecast Last Updated:
Apr 23, 2025 02:23AM UTC
(8 months ago)
Apr 23, 2025 02:23AM UTC
(8 months ago)
| Answer | Your Forecast | Current Consensus | Difference from Consensus | Change in Consensus Since Last Forecast |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Less than 30 days | 73% | 68% | +5% | +1% |
| 30 days | 22% | 6% | +16% | -4% |
| 31-60 days | 5% | 6% | -1% | -2% |
| 61-90 days | 0% | 5% | -5% | +0% |
| 91 days or more | 0% | 16% | -16% | +4% |
Will Russia invade Moldova, Armenia, Georgia, and/or Kazakhstan before 1 April 2027?
Forecast Count:
7 Forecasts
7 Forecasts
Question Ends:
Apr 01, 2027 04:00AM UTC
(1 year from now)
Apr 01, 2027 04:00AM UTC
(1 year from now)
Forecast Last Updated:
Apr 23, 2025 02:38AM UTC
(8 months ago)
Apr 23, 2025 02:38AM UTC
(8 months ago)
| Answer | Your Forecast | Current Consensus | Difference from Consensus | Change in Consensus Since Last Forecast |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Moldova | 9% | 6% | +3% | -1% |
| Armenia | 4% | 2% | +2% | +0% |
| Georgia | 5% | 3% | +2% | -2% |
| Kazakhstan | 4% | 1% | +3% | -1% |