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| Past Week | Past Month | Past Year | This Season | All Time | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Forecasts | 0 | 0 | 37 | 37 | 37 |
| Comments | 0 | 0 | 28 | 28 | 28 |
| Questions Forecasted | 0 | 0 | 23 | 23 | 23 |
| Upvotes on Comments By This User | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| Definitions | |||||
New Prediction
How many measles cases in the U.S. will be reported by the CDC between 1 January 2025 and 30 September 2025?
Compare to me
Probability
Answer
0%
(0%)
Less than or equal to 1349
1%
(0%)
Between 1350 and 1499, inclusive
4%
(0%)
Between 1500 and 1649, inclusive
15%
(0%)
Between 1650 and 1799, inclusive
80%
(0%)
More than or equal to 1800
Files
New Prediction
Probability
Answer
1%
(0%)
Yes
99%
(0%)
No
Confirmed previous forecast
Files
New Prediction
Probability
Answer
1%
(-44%)
Yes
99%
(+44%)
No
Why do you think you're right?
unlikely
Files
Why might you be wrong?
domestic politics may shift drastically
Files
New Prediction
Probability
Answer
77%
(+58%)
Less than or equal to 1
18%
(-52%)
Between 2 and 3, inclusive
5%
(-6%)
Between 4 and 5, inclusive
0%
(0%)
More than or equal to 6
Why do you think you're right?
As summer goes on, the chance of major hurricane is less and less
Files
Why might you be wrong?
there still could be more than 1 with extreme weather conditions
Files
New Prediction
Probability
Answer
1%
(-19%)
Yes
99%
(+19%)
No
Why do you think you're right?
highly unlikely
Files
Why might you be wrong?
major conflict could happen
Files
New Prediction
Probability
Answer
1%
(0%)
Less than 600
37%
(0%)
Between 600 and 629, inclusive
50%
(0%)
Between 630 and 659, inclusive
12%
(0%)
Between 660 and 689, inclusive
0%
(0%)
More than or equal to 690
Confirmed previous forecast
Files
New Prediction
Probability
Answer
5%
(0%)
Less than or equal to 500
47%
(0%)
Between 501 and 750, inclusive
40%
(0%)
Between 751 and 1000, inclusive
8%
(0%)
Between 1001 and 1250, inclusive
0%
(0%)
More than or equal to 1251
Confirmed previous forecast
Files
New Prediction
Probability
Answer
0%
(0%)
Less than 250
55%
(0%)
Between 250 and 349, inclusive
44%
(0%)
Between 350 and 449, inclusive
1%
(0%)
Between 450 and 549, inclusive
0%
(0%)
More than or equal to 550
Confirmed previous forecast
Files
New Prediction
Probability
Answer
20%
(0%)
Yes
80%
(0%)
No
Confirmed previous forecast
Files