The concept of "mirror life" starting to enter public consciousness through mass-media reporting (CNN) https://archive.is/paHdv
-0.170602
Relative Brier Score
8
Forecasts
0
Upvotes
Forecasting Activity
Forecasting Calendar
| Past Week | Past Month | Past Year | This Season | All Time | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Forecasts | 1 | 1 | 3 | 3 | 60 |
| Comments | 1 | 1 | 3 | 3 | 47 |
| Questions Forecasted | 1 | 1 | 2 | 2 | 19 |
| Upvotes on Comments By This User | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 6 |
| Definitions | |||||
New Prediction
New Comment
New Prediction
Probability
Answer
70%
(0%)
Yes
30%
(0%)
No
Confirmed previous forecast
Files
New Prediction
Probability
Answer
70%
Yes
30%
No
Why do you think you're right?
Trump will keep criticizing Ukraine while Putin is not backing down so EU will step in
Files
Why might you be wrong?
War could end or Ukrainian submission to Russia, or EU could be less supportive because of budgetary issues limiting their contribution.
Files
New Prediction
Probability
Answer
1%
(-2%)
Yes
99%
(+2%)
No
Calendar progress towards the date and the situation being relatively unchanged to move the needle.
Files
Why do you think you're right?
We only need one country, and Malaysia seems particularly close, with a planned implementation in 2026, and details thus announced sometime in the calendar year: https://assets.kpmg.com/content/dam/kpmg/my/pdf/budget2026-tl-indirect-tax-perspective.pdf
Why might you be wrong?