How it works:

Step

You submit a forecasting question you’d like to see published on RFI (read the guidance for question submissions).

Step

You, admins, and other forecasters collaborate and iterate on the question details to make sure it's well formed and includes answer options for all possible outcomes.

Step

Forecasters vote on suggested questions to surface topics that are of most interest to the community.

Step

An admin will make a final decision and publish the best questions for forecasting.

Pending Published Archived
Pinned Question Votes Question Author Status Submitted
/ Last Edited
Pinned Question
0
Will WHO declare this the next Pandemic ? An unknown illness has emerged in the Congo region of Africa, specifically in the Panzi health zone of Kwango province. The disease has resulted in at least 67 deaths between November 10 and November 25, 2024. The symptoms reported include fever, headaches, coughing, and anemia.
Captbullett
Open 12/03/24 11:56pm 12/03/24 11:56pm
Pinned Question
0
Will Bashir Assad still be internationally recognized as President of Syria on Dec 31 2026, or will he cease to act in that role for any reason.
Plataea479
Open 11/30/24 02:41pm 11/30/24 02:41pm
Pinned Question
-2
Good day
this is a link to the data on the question == "What action will Trump's administration take against Iran?"
https://apnews.com/article/iran-fbi-justice-department-iran-83cff84a7d65901a058ad6f41a564bdb
"What action will Trump's administration take against Iran?" https://apnews.com/article/iran-fbi-justice-department-iran-83cff84a7d65901a058ad6f41a564bdb "WASHINGTON (AP) — The Justice Department on Friday disclosed an Iranian murder-for-hire plot to kill Donald Trump, charging a man who said he had been tasked by a government official before this week’s election with planning the assassination of the Republican president-elect. Investigators were told of the plan to kill Trump by Farhad Shakeri, an accused Iranian government asset who spent time in American prisons for robbery and who authorities say maintains a network of criminal associates enlisted by Tehran for surveillance and murder-for-hire plots. Shakeri told the FBI that a contact in Iran’s paramilitary Revolutionary Guard instructed him this past September to set aside other work he was doing and assemble a plan within seven days to surveil and ultimately kill Trump, according to a criminal complaint unsealed in federal court in Manhattan."
Got it! Let's refine your question and consider possible outcomes. Here's a more focused version of your question:
Refined Question: "What specific actions will the Trump administration take in response to the disclosed Iranian murder-for-hire plot against Donald Trump?" Possible Outcomes: Diplomatic Measures: The Trump administration could pursue diplomatic channels, such as imposing additional sanctions on Iran, seeking international condemnation, or working with allies to isolate Iran diplomatically. Military Response: There could be a military response, ranging from targeted strikes against Iranian assets to increased military presence in the region to deter further aggression. Cyber Operations: The administration might launch cyber operations to disrupt Iranian networks and capabilities, aiming to weaken their ability to carry out such plots. Legal Actions: The U.S. could pursue legal actions against individuals involved in the plot, including seeking extradition of suspects and prosecuting them under U.S. law. Intelligence and Security Enhancements: Enhancing intelligence operations and security measures to prevent future plots and protect key figures. Public Statements and Warnings: Issuing strong public statements condemning the plot and warning Iran of severe consequences for any further attempts. These outcomes cover a range of potential responses, from diplomatic to military and legal actions.
Captbullett
Open 11/08/24 11:21pm 11/22/24 03:46pm
Pinned Question
1
Will RAND ever publish any questions that are suggested using the Create New Question feature that have been created since 2022, before 01JAN27?
000
Open 11/08/24 12:32pm 11/22/24 03:46pm
Pinned Question
0
Will there be a complete cessation of hostilities in Gaza before 01MAR25?
000
Open 11/07/24 06:36pm 11/07/24 06:36pm
Pinned Question
0
Will Putin unilaterally cease hostilities for at least 6 weeks before end of 2025 2026
Yes or now.
Will Russia and Ukraine enter into an Armistice like US PRC DPKR and ROK in 1954 to end Russo Ukraine War and no peace agreement where each participant may recommence hostilities yes or no
Yes or now
Will US end restrictions on Chinese imports of advanced chips and lithography production of advanced chips imposed by Netherlands and US Japan and ROK before 2026?
Yes or no
Will US and NATO and EU end sanctions on Russian gas and oil export or import of advanced oil infrastructure components by Dec. 31 2026.
Plataea479
Open 10/08/24 06:28am 11/22/24 03:46pm
Pinned Question
1
Will Ukraine be admitted to NATO alliance before January 1 2026. The issue of Ukraine’s membership in NATO is a persistent one since Russian attack on Kiev in February 2022 I posit that the existing bilateral alliances between US UK France Germany and and other NATO members are insufficient to induce either Ukraine or Russia to negotiate a meaningful and enforceable cease fire much less a comprehensive peace treaty and demarcation of borders.
The present war will probably end with a Korean War type cease fire with no peace agreement.But the war will not end until Ukraine is either admitted to NATO or agreed with Russia to eschew the alliance.
The Biden Administration has foreclosed this possible end to this war because it is risk averse, unimaginative, and frankly exhausted after years of negotiations with Turkiye and Hungary to get Sweden and NATO into alliance.
There are pros and cons to this issue but the new Harris or even the Trump administration needs a strategy to end this war. Neither is likely to cut off aid to Ukraine. Neither is likely to involve US personnel and assets in the conflict.
While the Biden Administration apparently concludes that admitting Ukraine to NATO increases the probability of war between NATO and Russia, they are dead wrong. Counter intuitively and based on the lack of any combat between Russsia and NATO for 75 years, admission to NATO is the cheapest least risky option to secure a meaningful cease fire on existing Line of Control, will save Russian and Ukrainian lives and provides the real potential for detente with Russia and containment until then.
Plataea479
Open 10/07/24 11:56am 11/22/24 03:46pm
Pinned Question
2
Will UK defence spending reach 2.5% of GDP during this term of the Labour government?
Kuona
Open 10/04/24 04:07pm 10/17/24 04:31pm
Pinned Question
2
Will UK Consumer Price Index inflation exceed 5% at any point in the next 6 months?
Kuona
Open 10/04/24 04:01pm 10/17/24 04:31pm
Pinned Question
2
Will legally binding requirements for screening of both orders and customers for commercial nucleic acid synthesis come into force in the UK before 2027?
Kuona
Open 09/12/24 12:01pm 10/17/24 04:31pm
Files
Tip: Mention someone by typing @username