RAND Forecasting Initiative

Your Score

In the next 12 months, will a Large Language Model built by a Chinese organization rank in the top 3 overall on the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard? (Scores for forecasts between Oct 7, 2024 and Jan 23, 2025)

Closed Jan 23, 2025 05:00PM UTC · 88 · 231

In the next 12 months, will a Large Language Model built by a Chinese organization rank in the top 3 overall on the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard?

Closed Jan 23, 2025 05:00PM UTC · 88 · 231

Will the Syrian Democratic Forces collapse, fragment, or lose control over key territories, specifically Manbij, Raqqa, or Deir ez-Zor, before 1 October 2026?

Closed Dec 10, 2024 10:46PM UTC · 55 · 200

Will the People's Liberation Army invade, blockade, or attack the main island of Taiwan in the next six months? (Scores for forecasts between Jul 29, 2024 and Aug 28, 2024)

Closed Aug 28, 2024 08:00PM UTC · 65 · 92

What percentage of global semiconductor revenue will come from the Americas region in 2024?

Closed Feb 14, 2025 06:00PM UTC · 54 · 321

Will the Lebanese parliament elect a president in the next six months? (Scores for forecasts between Jul 2, 2024 and Jan 9, 2025)

Closed Jan 09, 2025 02:00PM UTC · 56 · 487

In the next six months, will the Global Protest Tracker record an anti-government protest in Iran with 10,000 or more participants lasting at least a week? (Scores for forecasts between Jun 15, 2024 and Jul 15, 2024)

Closed Jul 15, 2024 10:00PM UTC · 39 · 85

Will Israel and Saudi Arabia publicly acknowledge that they are resuming the normalization process in the next six months? (Scores for forecasts between Jun 6, 2024 and Jul 6, 2024)

Closed Jul 06, 2024 04:00PM UTC · 61 · 124

Will Iran launch missiles or conduct an airstrike against U.S. forces in the next six months? (Scores for forecasts between Jun 6, 2024 and Jul 6, 2024)

Closed Jul 06, 2024 04:00PM UTC · 55 · 120

Will any listed Muslim-majority country sign an agreement establishing or normalizing diplomatic relations with Israel in the next six months? (Scores for forecasts between Jun 2, 2024 and Jul 2, 2024)

Closed Jul 02, 2024 04:00PM UTC · 48 · 108