RAND Forecasting Initiative

Question

Crowd Forecast

Will the FDA accept an Investigational New Drug (IND) application for a novel drug containing preclinical evidence generated solely from "in silico" studies by 31 December 2035?

Closed Feb 12, 2025 04:59AM UTC · 57 · 71

9%

Chance

[EXPERIMENTAL] Which of the following categories will realize the most commercial adoption of bioelectronics by 31 December 2035?

Closed Feb 12, 2025 04:59AM UTC · 41 · 51

Will the FDA approve the repurposing of a drug originally indicated for a neurodegenerative disease to also treat traumatic brain injuries by 31 December 2030?

Closed Feb 12, 2025 04:59AM UTC · 53 · 65

20%

Chance

Will any CBRN weapons (chemical, biological, radiological, nuclear) be used by a state actor in an armed conflict by 31 December 2030?

Closed Feb 12, 2025 04:59AM UTC · 66 · 95

Will a protein of at least 400 amino acids in length be successfully produced in a laboratory setting using automated chemical synthesis and verified by 31 December 2030?

Closed Feb 12, 2025 04:59AM UTC · 40 · 53

21%

Chance

Will the FDA grant market approval for a brain-computer interface (BCI) with indications for use in able-bodied individuals by 31 December 2030?

Closed Feb 12, 2025 04:59AM UTC · 54 · 64

6%

Chance

Will a Chinese organization produce DUV (ArFi) photolithography machines that are capable of high-volume manufacturing (at least 140 wafers per hour) before 1 January 2026?

Closed Dec 01, 2024 04:59AM UTC · 64 · 101

37%

Chance

Will a Chinese organization produce EUV photolithography machines that are capable of high-volume manufacturing (at least 90 wafers per hour) before 1 January 2030?

Closed Dec 01, 2024 04:59AM UTC · 54 · 88

45%

Chance

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Will the FDA accept an Investigational New Drug (IND) application for a novel drug containing preclinical evidence generated solely from "in silico" studies by 31 December 2035?

9%

[EXPERIMENTAL] Which of the following categories will realize the most commercial adoption of bioelectronics by 31 December 2035?

Will the FDA approve the repurposing of a drug originally indicated for a neurodegenerative disease to also treat traumatic brain injuries by 31 December 2030?

20%

Will any CBRN weapons (chemical, biological, radiological, nuclear) be used by a state actor in an armed conflict by 31 December 2030?

Will a protein of at least 400 amino acids in length be successfully produced in a laboratory setting using automated chemical synthesis and verified by 31 December 2030?

21%

Will the FDA grant market approval for a brain-computer interface (BCI) with indications for use in able-bodied individuals by 31 December 2030?

6%

Will a Chinese organization produce DUV (ArFi) photolithography machines that are capable of high-volume manufacturing (at least 140 wafers per hour) before 1 January 2026?

37%

Will a Chinese organization produce EUV photolithography machines that are capable of high-volume manufacturing (at least 90 wafers per hour) before 1 January 2030?

45%

Status

Season

Sort By

Filter By

Topics

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9%

20%

21%

6%

37%

45%