RAND Forecasting Initiative

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Your Score

Will Vladimir Putin cease to be the president of the Russian Federation before 1 May 2024?

Closed May 01, 2024 04:01AM UTC · 548 · 2016

Will Vladimir Putin cease to be the president of the Russian Federation before 1 March 2023?

Closed Mar 01, 2023 05:00AM UTC · 348 · 1512

Before 1 June 2024, will Facebook, WhatsApp, Messenger, or Twitter announce that they are labeling posts as potentially written by AI?

Closed Jun 01, 2024 04:00AM UTC · 272 · 1357

Will United Airlines announce that they are using sustainable aviation fuel produced by Cemvita Factory by 31 Dec 2023?

Closed Jan 01, 2024 05:00PM UTC · 118 · 1104

Will Vladimir Putin’s approval rating drop below 50% in the next month?

Closed Apr 01, 2023 04:00AM UTC · 175 · 1073

Will the New York Times, CBC, or BBC announce that they will only publish photos or videos containing digital provenance (e.g., C2PA) by 31 May 2024?

Closed Jun 01, 2024 04:00AM UTC · 187 · 1025

Will OpenAI release a fifth generation of its generative pre-trained transformer model (GPT-5) to the general public in 2023?

Closed Jan 01, 2024 05:00AM UTC · 176 · 988

Will events involving Russian security forces result in 25 or more fatalities occurring on or in the soil, airspace, or territorial waters of a NATO member state before 1 April 2023?

Closed Apr 01, 2023 04:00AM UTC · 150 · 940

Will Google’s Quantum AI lab publish 20 or more publications in 2023?

Closed Nov 18, 2023 05:00PM UTC · 110 · 883

Will events involving Russian security forces result in 25 or more fatalities occurring in Georgia or Moldova before 1 April 2023?

Closed Apr 17, 2023 04:00PM UTC · 121 · 855