RAND Forecasting Initiative

Question

Crowd Forecast

Will the People's Liberation Army invade, blockade, or attack the main island of Taiwan in the next six months?

Closed Jan 01, 2026 05:00AM UTC · 248 · 1641

2%

Chance

Will North Korea conduct a nuclear test within the next six months?

Closed Jan 01, 2026 05:00AM UTC · 156 · 1212

1%

Chance

In the next 18 months, will a Russian government cyber attack occur against energy or transportation infrastructure within a NATO country that produces a kinetic effect, causing physical damage or human casualties?

Closed Jan 01, 2026 05:00AM UTC · 147 · 1042

4%

Chance

Will Ali Khamenei flee Iran or cease to be Supreme Leader in the next year?

Closed Apr 01, 2025 04:00AM UTC · 136 · 946

9%

Chance

Will Egypt experience an economic collapse (as defined by any of the listed scenarios) in the next 12 months?

Closed Jan 01, 2026 05:00AM UTC · 116 · 882

1%

Chance

Will North Korea engage in kinetic military action against a South Korean vessel, island, or other asset south of the Northern Limit Line in the Yellow Sea in the next six months?

Closed Jan 01, 2026 05:00AM UTC · 84 · 742

1%

Chance

Will Iran agree to limit uranium enrichment to 5% or less in the next 6 months? (Scores for forecasts between Jun 22, 2024 and Sep 22, 2024)

Closed Sep 22, 2024 08:00PM UTC · 81 · 390

0%

Chance

Will Iran agree to limit uranium enrichment to 5% or less in the next 6 months? (Scores for forecasts between Sep 22, 2024 and Dec 22, 2024)

Closed Dec 22, 2024 08:00PM UTC · 75 · 390

0%

Chance

Will Iran agree to limit uranium enrichment to 5% or less in the next 6 months? (Scores for forecasts between Mar 22, 2024 and Jun 22, 2024)

Closed Jun 22, 2024 08:00PM UTC · 86 · 383

0%

Chance

Will Iran be at war with another country in the next year? (Scores for forecasts between Jan 26, 2024 and Apr 26, 2024)

Closed Apr 26, 2024 07:00PM UTC · 73 · 202

0%

Chance

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Season

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Will the People's Liberation Army invade, blockade, or attack the main island of Taiwan in the next six months?

2%

Will North Korea conduct a nuclear test within the next six months?

1%

In the next 18 months, will a Russian government cyber attack occur against energy or transportation infrastructure within a NATO country that produces a kinetic effect, causing physical damage or human casualties?

4%

Will Ali Khamenei flee Iran or cease to be Supreme Leader in the next year?

9%

Will Egypt experience an economic collapse (as defined by any of the listed scenarios) in the next 12 months?

1%

Will North Korea engage in kinetic military action against a South Korean vessel, island, or other asset south of the Northern Limit Line in the Yellow Sea in the next six months?

1%

Will Iran agree to limit uranium enrichment to 5% or less in the next 6 months? (Scores for forecasts between Jun 22, 2024 and Sep 22, 2024)

0%

Will Iran agree to limit uranium enrichment to 5% or less in the next 6 months? (Scores for forecasts between Sep 22, 2024 and Dec 22, 2024)

0%

Will Iran agree to limit uranium enrichment to 5% or less in the next 6 months? (Scores for forecasts between Mar 22, 2024 and Jun 22, 2024)

0%

Will Iran be at war with another country in the next year? (Scores for forecasts between Jan 26, 2024 and Apr 26, 2024)

0%

Status

Season

Sort By

Filter By

Topics

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2%

1%

4%

9%

1%

1%

0%

0%

0%

0%