RAND Forecasting Initiative

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Your Score

Will Vladimir Putin cease to be the president of the Russian Federation before 1 May 2024?

Closed May 01, 2024 04:01AM UTC · 548 · 2016

Before 1 June 2024, will Facebook, WhatsApp, Messenger, or Twitter announce that they are labeling posts as potentially written by AI?

Closed Jun 01, 2024 04:00AM UTC · 272 · 1357

Will the New York Times, CBC, or BBC announce that they will only publish photos or videos containing digital provenance (e.g., C2PA) by 31 May 2024?

Closed Jun 01, 2024 04:00AM UTC · 187 · 1025

Will Ali Khamenei flee Iran or cease to be Supreme Leader before 1 March 2024?

Closed Mar 01, 2024 05:00AM UTC · 99 · 777

Will the price of the rare earth compound dysprosium oxide equal or exceed $1000 per kg before 1 July 2024?

Closed Jul 01, 2024 04:01AM UTC · 103 · 752

Will Australia issue a Level 3 or Level 4 travel advisory for Taiwan before 1 July 2024?

Closed Jul 01, 2024 04:01PM UTC · 89 · 726

Will Imran Khan be re-elected as prime minister following Pakistan’s upcoming general election?

Closed Mar 03, 2024 05:00PM UTC · 104 · 683

Will Israel declare war on Hezbollah in the next 6 months?

Closed Sep 30, 2024 11:02PM UTC · 96 · 637

Will Israel declare war on Hezbollah in the next 6 months? (Scores for forecasts between Mar 14, 2024 and Sep 30, 2024)

Closed Sep 30, 2024 11:02PM UTC · 96 · 637

Will any TSMC fab in Taiwan be shut down for at least one day because of a non-scheduled emergency by 31 March 2024?

Closed Apr 01, 2024 04:00AM UTC · 107 · 634