RAND Forecasting Initiative

Your Score

Will the People's Liberation Army invade, blockade, or attack the main island of Taiwan in the next six months? (Scores for forecasts between Feb 20, 2024 and Mar 20, 2024)

Closed Mar 20, 2024 08:00PM UTC · 110 · 192

Will the People's Liberation Army invade, blockade, or attack the main island of Taiwan in the next six months? (Scores for forecasts between Jan 20, 2024 and Feb 20, 2024)

Closed Feb 20, 2024 08:00PM UTC · 102 · 183

Will the People's Liberation Army invade, blockade, or attack the main island of Taiwan in the next six months? (Scores for forecasts between Dec 20, 2023 and Jan 20, 2024)

Closed Jan 20, 2024 08:00PM UTC · 83 · 161

Will Australia issue a Level 3 or Level 4 travel advisory for Taiwan before 1 July 2024?

Closed Jul 01, 2024 04:01PM UTC · 89 · 726

Will the price of the rare earth compound dysprosium oxide equal or exceed $1000 per kg before 1 July 2024?

Closed Jul 01, 2024 04:01AM UTC · 103 · 752

Will any TSMC fab in Taiwan be shut down for at least one day because of a non-scheduled emergency by 31 March 2024?

Closed Apr 01, 2024 04:00AM UTC · 107 · 634

Will the People's Liberation Army invade, blockade, or attack the main island of Taiwan in the next six months?

Closed Oct 01, 2024 04:00AM UTC · 173 · 1104

For each of the 5 quarters listed, what is the probability that North America’s share of TSMC’s net revenue will be less than 40%?

Closed Jul 18, 2024 04:00AM UTC · 80 · 594