RAND Forecasting Initiative

Question

Crowd Forecast

Will Western Asia and North African intra-regional exports equal or exceed 24% of total exports in 2025 or 2026, according to UNCTAD data?

Closing Jan 01, 2027 05:00AM UTC · 30 · 60

21%

Chance

Will Wagner Group or Africa Corps deploy to Togo or an additional African country before 1 January 2026?

Closing Jan 01, 2026 05:00AM UTC · 79 · 870

Will the U.S. federal government enact legislation that substantively regulates or authorizes regulation of artificial intelligence systems or their development before 1 January 2026?

Closing Jan 01, 2026 05:00AM UTC · 97 · 524

1%

Chance

Will the United States implement new or expanded export controls on advanced AI chips, cloud access to AI computing, and/or AI model weights in 2025?

Closing Jan 01, 2026 05:00AM UTC · 66 · 375

10%

Chance

Will the United States government implement new or expanded export controls or restrictions explicitly targeting frontier AI model development by 31 July 2026?

Closing Aug 01, 2026 04:00AM UTC · 35 · 45

11%

Chance

Will the S&P CoreLogic Case-Shiller Index, a measure of U.S. residential home costs, exceed 350 by July 2027?

Closing Jul 01, 2027 04:00AM UTC · 36 · 111

55%

Chance

Will the People's Liberation Army invade, blockade, or attack the main island of Taiwan in the next six months?

Closing Jan 01, 2026 05:00AM UTC · 247 · 1562

1%

Chance

Will the FDA have authorized a medical device that incorporates LLM-based functionality by 31 March 2026?

Closing Apr 01, 2026 04:00AM UTC · 56 · 83

3%

Chance

Will the European “Coalition of the Willing” deploy forces to Ukraine in 2025?

Closing Jan 01, 2026 05:00AM UTC · 128 · 583

1%

Chance

Will the EU import at least 19 billion cubic meters of natural gas from Russia in the second half of 2025?

Closing Jan 01, 2026 05:00AM UTC · 34 · 60

0%

Chance

Status

Season

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Will Western Asia and North African intra-regional exports equal or exceed 24% of total exports in 2025 or 2026, according to UNCTAD data?

21%

Will Wagner Group or Africa Corps deploy to Togo or an additional African country before 1 January 2026?

Will the U.S. federal government enact legislation that substantively regulates or authorizes regulation of artificial intelligence systems or their development before 1 January 2026?

1%

Will the United States implement new or expanded export controls on advanced AI chips, cloud access to AI computing, and/or AI model weights in 2025?

10%

Will the United States government implement new or expanded export controls or restrictions explicitly targeting frontier AI model development by 31 July 2026?

11%

Will the S&P CoreLogic Case-Shiller Index, a measure of U.S. residential home costs, exceed 350 by July 2027?

55%

Will the People's Liberation Army invade, blockade, or attack the main island of Taiwan in the next six months?

1%

Will the FDA have authorized a medical device that incorporates LLM-based functionality by 31 March 2026?

3%

Will the European “Coalition of the Willing” deploy forces to Ukraine in 2025?

1%

Will the EU import at least 19 billion cubic meters of natural gas from Russia in the second half of 2025?

0%

Status

Season

Sort By

Filter By

Topics

Tags

21%

1%

10%

11%

55%

1%

3%

1%

0%