RAND Forecasting Initiative

Question

Crowd Forecast

Will a collaboration between Huawei and the O-RAN Alliance be announced before 1 October 2025?

Closed Oct 01, 2025 04:00AM UTC · 96 · 1068

0%

Chance

Will Ali Khamenei flee Iran or cease to be Supreme Leader in the next year?

Closed Apr 01, 2025 04:00AM UTC · 136 · 946

9%

Chance

What will be the risk index score for the perceived threat posed by Russia to Germany in the 2026 Munich Security Report?

Closed Oct 01, 2025 04:00AM UTC · 71 · 645

What will be Germany’s net perception of Ukraine in the 2026 Munich Security Report?

Closed Oct 01, 2025 04:00AM UTC · 70 · 600

Will North Korea conduct a nuclear test within the next six months? (Scores for forecasts between Apr 4, 2025 and May 4, 2025)

Closed May 04, 2025 05:00PM UTC · 87 · 181

0%

Chance

Will the People's Liberation Army invade, blockade, or attack the main island of Taiwan in the next six months? (Scores for forecasts between Feb 28, 2025 and Mar 28, 2025)

Closed Mar 28, 2025 08:00PM UTC · 101 · 171

0%

Chance

Will any listed Muslim-majority country sign an agreement establishing or normalizing diplomatic relations with Israel in the next six months? (Scores for forecasts between Apr 2, 2025 and May 2, 2025)

Closed May 02, 2025 04:00PM UTC · 57 · 115

0%

Chance

Will North Korea engage in kinetic military action against a South Korean vessel, island, or other asset south of the Northern Limit Line in the Yellow Sea in the next six months? (Scores for forecasts between Apr 4, 2025 and May 4, 2025)

Closed May 04, 2025 05:00PM UTC · 49 · 103

0%

Chance

Will any CBRN weapons (chemical, biological, radiological, nuclear) be used by a state actor in an armed conflict by 31 December 2030?

Closed Feb 12, 2025 04:59AM UTC · 66 · 95

Will the FDA accept an Investigational New Drug (IND) application for a novel drug containing preclinical evidence generated solely from "in silico" studies by 31 December 2035?

Closed Feb 12, 2025 04:59AM UTC · 57 · 71

9%

Chance

Status

Season

Sort By

Filter By

Topics

Select All

Will a collaboration between Huawei and the O-RAN Alliance be announced before 1 October 2025?

0%

Will Ali Khamenei flee Iran or cease to be Supreme Leader in the next year?

9%

What will be the risk index score for the perceived threat posed by Russia to Germany in the 2026 Munich Security Report?

What will be Germany’s net perception of Ukraine in the 2026 Munich Security Report?

Will North Korea conduct a nuclear test within the next six months? (Scores for forecasts between Apr 4, 2025 and May 4, 2025)

0%

Will the People's Liberation Army invade, blockade, or attack the main island of Taiwan in the next six months? (Scores for forecasts between Feb 28, 2025 and Mar 28, 2025)

0%

Will any listed Muslim-majority country sign an agreement establishing or normalizing diplomatic relations with Israel in the next six months? (Scores for forecasts between Apr 2, 2025 and May 2, 2025)

0%

Will North Korea engage in kinetic military action against a South Korean vessel, island, or other asset south of the Northern Limit Line in the Yellow Sea in the next six months? (Scores for forecasts between Apr 4, 2025 and May 4, 2025)

0%

Will any CBRN weapons (chemical, biological, radiological, nuclear) be used by a state actor in an armed conflict by 31 December 2030?

Will the FDA accept an Investigational New Drug (IND) application for a novel drug containing preclinical evidence generated solely from "in silico" studies by 31 December 2035?

9%

Status

Season

Sort By

Filter By

Topics

Tags

0%

9%

0%

0%

0%

0%

9%