RAND Forecasting Initiative

Question

Crowd Forecast

Will any listed Muslim-majority country sign an agreement establishing or normalizing diplomatic relations with Israel in the next six months?

Closing Jan 01, 2026 05:00AM UTC · 142 · 1464

0%

Chance

Will the People's Liberation Army invade, blockade, or attack the main island of Taiwan in the next six months?

Closing Jan 01, 2026 05:00AM UTC · 247 · 1569

1%

Chance

Will Wagner Group or Africa Corps deploy to Togo or an additional African country before 1 January 2026?

Closing Jan 01, 2026 05:00AM UTC · 79 · 878

Will North Korea engage in kinetic military action against a South Korean vessel, island, or other asset south of the Northern Limit Line in the Yellow Sea in the next six months?

Closing Jan 01, 2026 05:00AM UTC · 84 · 701

1%

Chance

Will North Korea conduct a nuclear test within the next six months?

Closing Jan 01, 2026 05:00AM UTC · 156 · 1146

1%

Chance

In the next 18 months, will a Russian government cyber attack occur against energy or transportation infrastructure within a NATO country that produces a kinetic effect, causing physical damage or human casualties?

Closing Jan 01, 2026 05:00AM UTC · 142 · 982

5%

Chance

Will Egypt experience an economic collapse (as defined by any of the listed scenarios) in the next 12 months?

Closing Jan 01, 2026 05:00AM UTC · 115 · 838

2%

Chance

When will a bilateral ceasefire or peace agreement in the Russo-Ukraine conflict first go into effect?

Closing Jan 01, 2026 05:00AM UTC · 120 · 800

If a bilateral ceasefire or peace agreement in the Russo-Ukraine conflict goes into effect in 2025, how long will it last?

Closing Jan 01, 2026 05:00AM UTC · 140 · 815

Will the United States implement new or expanded export controls on advanced AI chips, cloud access to AI computing, and/or AI model weights in 2025?

Closing Jan 01, 2026 05:00AM UTC · 66 · 382

10%

Chance

Status

Season

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Will any listed Muslim-majority country sign an agreement establishing or normalizing diplomatic relations with Israel in the next six months?

0%

Will the People's Liberation Army invade, blockade, or attack the main island of Taiwan in the next six months?

1%

Will Wagner Group or Africa Corps deploy to Togo or an additional African country before 1 January 2026?

Will North Korea engage in kinetic military action against a South Korean vessel, island, or other asset south of the Northern Limit Line in the Yellow Sea in the next six months?

1%

Will North Korea conduct a nuclear test within the next six months?

1%

In the next 18 months, will a Russian government cyber attack occur against energy or transportation infrastructure within a NATO country that produces a kinetic effect, causing physical damage or human casualties?

5%

Will Egypt experience an economic collapse (as defined by any of the listed scenarios) in the next 12 months?

2%

When will a bilateral ceasefire or peace agreement in the Russo-Ukraine conflict first go into effect?

If a bilateral ceasefire or peace agreement in the Russo-Ukraine conflict goes into effect in 2025, how long will it last?

Will the United States implement new or expanded export controls on advanced AI chips, cloud access to AI computing, and/or AI model weights in 2025?

10%

Status

Season

Sort By

Filter By

Topics

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0%

1%

1%

1%

5%

2%

10%