RAND Forecasting Initiative

Question

Crowd Forecast

Will Wagner Group or Africa Corps deploy to Togo or an additional African country before 1 January 2026?

Closing Jan 01, 2026 05:00AM UTC · 67 · 493

Will Vladimir Putin cease to be the president of the Russian Federation before 1 July 2025?

Closing Jul 01, 2025 04:00AM UTC · 194 · 1206

0%

Chance

Will the U.S. federal government enact legislation that substantively regulates or authorizes regulation of artificial intelligence systems or their development before 1 January 2026?

Closing Jan 01, 2026 05:00AM UTC · 24 · 29

4%

Chance

Will the United States implement new or expanded export controls on advanced AI chips, cloud access to AI computing, and/or AI model weights in 2025?

Closing Jan 01, 2026 05:00AM UTC · 18 · 27

61%

Chance

Will the sub-Saharan African governments listed (Angola, Kenya, Ethiopia, Nigeria) cease to service their external debt and enter into default before 1 October 2025?

Closing Oct 01, 2025 04:00AM UTC · 49 · 262

Will there be a successful coup d’état in Africa in the next six months?

Closing Jan 01, 2026 05:00AM UTC · 78 · 506

40%

Chance

Will the People's Liberation Army invade, blockade, or attack the main island of Taiwan in the next six months?

Closing Jan 01, 2026 05:00AM UTC · 210 · 886

3%

Chance

Will the O-RAN Alliance’s specifications be integrated into 3GPP before 1 January 2027?

Closing Jan 01, 2027 05:00AM UTC · 35 · 314

Will the Latin American governments listed (Argentina, Bolivia, Ecuador) cease to service their external debt and enter into default before 1 October 2025?

Closing Oct 01, 2025 04:00AM UTC · 68 · 335

Will the European “Coalition of the Willing” deploy forces to Ukraine in 2025?

Closing Jan 01, 2026 05:00AM UTC · 25 · 26

3%

Chance

Status

Season

Sort By

Filter By

Topics

Select All

Will Wagner Group or Africa Corps deploy to Togo or an additional African country before 1 January 2026?

Will Vladimir Putin cease to be the president of the Russian Federation before 1 July 2025?

0%

Will the U.S. federal government enact legislation that substantively regulates or authorizes regulation of artificial intelligence systems or their development before 1 January 2026?

4%

Will the United States implement new or expanded export controls on advanced AI chips, cloud access to AI computing, and/or AI model weights in 2025?

61%

Will the sub-Saharan African governments listed (Angola, Kenya, Ethiopia, Nigeria) cease to service their external debt and enter into default before 1 October 2025?

Will there be a successful coup d’état in Africa in the next six months?

40%

Will the People's Liberation Army invade, blockade, or attack the main island of Taiwan in the next six months?

3%

Will the O-RAN Alliance’s specifications be integrated into 3GPP before 1 January 2027?

Will the Latin American governments listed (Argentina, Bolivia, Ecuador) cease to service their external debt and enter into default before 1 October 2025?

Will the European “Coalition of the Willing” deploy forces to Ukraine in 2025?

3%

Status

Season

Sort By

Filter By

Topics

Tags

0%

4%

61%

40%

3%

3%