RAND Forecasting Initiative

Question

Crowd Forecast

Will Western Asia and North African intra-regional exports equal or exceed 24% of total exports in 2025 or 2026, according to UNCTAD data?

Closing Jan 01, 2027 05:00AM UTC · 35 · 85

20%

Chance

Will the United States government implement new or expanded export controls or restrictions explicitly targeting frontier AI model development by 31 July 2026?

Closing Aug 01, 2026 04:00AM UTC · 50 · 92

16%

Chance

Will the United Nations Security Council adopt a resolution related to the conflict in Sudan by 1 May 2026?

Closing May 02, 2026 04:00AM UTC · 11 · 13

71%

Chance

Will the United Nations deploy peacekeeping forces to a conflict zone in a new country or territory by 31 July 2026?

Closing Aug 01, 2026 04:00AM UTC · 26 · 38

3%

Chance

Will the S&P CoreLogic Case-Shiller Index, a measure of U.S. residential home costs, exceed 350 by July 2027?

Closing Jul 01, 2027 04:00AM UTC · 38 · 147

52%

Chance

Will the O-RAN Alliance’s specifications be integrated into 3GPP before 1 January 2027?

Closing Jan 01, 2027 05:00AM UTC · 38 · 571

Will the Houthis (Ansarallah movement) attack a commercial shipping vessel on the Red Sea between 19 December 2025 and 31 July 2026, inclusive?

Closing Aug 01, 2026 04:00AM UTC · 9 · 13

75%

Chance

Will the FDA have authorized a medical device that incorporates LLM-based functionality by 31 March 2026?

Closing Apr 01, 2026 04:00AM UTC · 73 · 170

4%

Chance

Will Sudan’s Rapid Support Forces retake control over Khartoum city by 31 March 2026?

Closing Apr 01, 2026 04:00AM UTC · 54 · 125

1%

Chance

Will scientists successfully create a synthetic cell from chemically synthesized components by 1 January 2035?

Closing Jul 01, 2026 04:00AM UTC · 45 · 206

12%

Chance

Status

Season

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Will Western Asia and North African intra-regional exports equal or exceed 24% of total exports in 2025 or 2026, according to UNCTAD data?

20%

Will the United States government implement new or expanded export controls or restrictions explicitly targeting frontier AI model development by 31 July 2026?

16%

Will the United Nations Security Council adopt a resolution related to the conflict in Sudan by 1 May 2026?

71%

Will the United Nations deploy peacekeeping forces to a conflict zone in a new country or territory by 31 July 2026?

3%

Will the S&P CoreLogic Case-Shiller Index, a measure of U.S. residential home costs, exceed 350 by July 2027?

52%

Will the O-RAN Alliance’s specifications be integrated into 3GPP before 1 January 2027?

Will the Houthis (Ansarallah movement) attack a commercial shipping vessel on the Red Sea between 19 December 2025 and 31 July 2026, inclusive?

75%

Will the FDA have authorized a medical device that incorporates LLM-based functionality by 31 March 2026?

4%

Will Sudan’s Rapid Support Forces retake control over Khartoum city by 31 March 2026?

1%

Will scientists successfully create a synthetic cell from chemically synthesized components by 1 January 2035?

12%

Status

Season

Sort By

Filter By

Topics

Tags

20%

16%

71%

3%

52%

75%

4%

1%

12%