RAND Forecasting Initiative

Question

Crowd Forecast

Will war break out between Hezbollah and Israel in the next month?

Closed Jan 01, 2026 05:00AM UTC · 73 · 135

7%

Chance

Will the U.S. military acknowledge using an autonomously operated drone to identify and deploy lethal force against a human target in the next four quarters (year)?

Closed Aug 24, 2022 11:00AM UTC · 0 · 0

50%

Chance

Will there be an organized employee protest at one of the "Big 5" tech companies against the company's involvement with DoD in the next year?

Closed Apr 01, 2022 11:00PM UTC · 0 · 0

50%

Chance

Will there be an attack on an Iranian nuclear facility in the next 6 months?

Closed Jan 01, 2025 05:00AM UTC · 60 · 77

13%

Chance

Will the cost of sequencing a human genome drop below $100 before 1 September 2023?

Closed Sep 01, 2023 03:59AM UTC · 101 · 465

4%

Chance

Will the China Coast Guard or PLA Navy attempt to anchor one or more of their vessels on or near one of the disputed maritime features in the South China Sea before 1 January 2025?

Closed Jan 01, 2025 05:00AM UTC · 12 · 17

4%

Chance

Will North Korea launch an intercontinental ballistic missile (ICBM) on or before 31 March 2023?

Closed Apr 01, 2023 03:59AM UTC · 9 · 10

96%

Chance

Will more U.S. patent applications mentioning both “quantum computing” and “artificial intelligence” be filed in 2023 than in 2022?

Closed Jan 01, 2024 04:59AM UTC · 44 · 61

77%

Chance

Will Ant Financial have an IPO in China or Hong Kong by April 30, 2021?

Closed May 01, 2021 04:59AM UTC · 0 · 0

50%

Chance

Which country will have published the second most top tiered journal articles on artificial intelligence in 2022?

Closed Dec 01, 2022 04:59AM UTC · 59 · 183

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Will war break out between Hezbollah and Israel in the next month?

7%

Will the U.S. military acknowledge using an autonomously operated drone to identify and deploy lethal force against a human target in the next four quarters (year)?

50%

Will there be an organized employee protest at one of the "Big 5" tech companies against the company's involvement with DoD in the next year?

50%

Will there be an attack on an Iranian nuclear facility in the next 6 months?

13%

Will the cost of sequencing a human genome drop below $100 before 1 September 2023?

4%

Will the China Coast Guard or PLA Navy attempt to anchor one or more of their vessels on or near one of the disputed maritime features in the South China Sea before 1 January 2025?

4%

Will North Korea launch an intercontinental ballistic missile (ICBM) on or before 31 March 2023?

96%

Will more U.S. patent applications mentioning both “quantum computing” and “artificial intelligence” be filed in 2023 than in 2022?

77%

Will Ant Financial have an IPO in China or Hong Kong by April 30, 2021?

50%

Which country will have published the second most top tiered journal articles on artificial intelligence in 2022?

Status

Season

Sort By

Filter By

Topics

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7%

50%

50%

13%

4%

4%

96%

77%

50%