RAND Forecasting Initiative

Question

Crowd Forecast

Will Russia invade Estonia, Latvia, and/or Lithuania before 1 April 2027?

Closing Apr 01, 2027 04:00AM UTC · 185 · 1429

Will Russia invade Moldova, Armenia, Georgia, and/or Kazakhstan before 1 April 2027?

Closing Apr 01, 2027 04:00AM UTC · 148 · 1256

Will the People's Liberation Army invade, blockade, or attack the main island of Taiwan in the next six months?

Closing Jan 01, 2026 05:00AM UTC · 220 · 1101

3%

Chance

Will any listed Muslim-majority country sign an agreement establishing or normalizing diplomatic relations with Israel in the next six months?

Closing Jan 01, 2026 05:00AM UTC · 117 · 1096

8%

Chance

Will a collaboration between Huawei and the O-RAN Alliance be announced before 1 October 2025?

Closing Oct 01, 2025 04:00AM UTC · 84 · 890

0%

Chance

Will North Korea conduct a nuclear test within the next six months?

Closing Jan 01, 2026 05:00AM UTC · 143 · 752

4%

Chance

Will Huawei sell or announce plans to sell Open RAN equipment before 1 January 2027?

Closing Jan 01, 2027 05:00AM UTC · 73 · 715

5%

Chance

Will another Chinese military base in an African country (excluding Djibouti) be under construction or established by 1 January 2027?

Closing Jan 01, 2027 05:00AM UTC · 95 · 652

30%

Chance

In the next 18 months, will a Russian government cyber attack occur against energy or transportation infrastructure within a NATO country that produces a kinetic effect, causing physical damage or human casualties?

Closing Jan 01, 2026 05:00AM UTC · 125 · 639

7%

Chance

Will there be a successful coup d’état in Africa in the next six months?

Closing Jan 01, 2026 05:00AM UTC · 88 · 633

36%

Chance

Status

Season

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Will Russia invade Estonia, Latvia, and/or Lithuania before 1 April 2027?

Will Russia invade Moldova, Armenia, Georgia, and/or Kazakhstan before 1 April 2027?

Will the People's Liberation Army invade, blockade, or attack the main island of Taiwan in the next six months?

3%

Will any listed Muslim-majority country sign an agreement establishing or normalizing diplomatic relations with Israel in the next six months?

8%

Will a collaboration between Huawei and the O-RAN Alliance be announced before 1 October 2025?

0%

Will North Korea conduct a nuclear test within the next six months?

4%

Will Huawei sell or announce plans to sell Open RAN equipment before 1 January 2027?

5%

Will another Chinese military base in an African country (excluding Djibouti) be under construction or established by 1 January 2027?

30%

In the next 18 months, will a Russian government cyber attack occur against energy or transportation infrastructure within a NATO country that produces a kinetic effect, causing physical damage or human casualties?

7%

Will there be a successful coup d’état in Africa in the next six months?

36%

Status

Season

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Topics

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3%

8%

0%

4%

5%

30%

7%

36%