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Question
Crowd Forecast
Will there be an agreed-upon pause in the conflict between Israel and Hamas that starts before 1 December 2024 and lasts at least 30 days?
Closing
Dec 01, 2024 05:00AM UTC
·
155
·
1334
19%
Chance
Will any of the following countries recognize Israel’s statehood by 31 December 2024?
Closing
Jan 01, 2025 05:00AM UTC
·
100
·
902
By 31 December 2024, will Microsoft announce that its AI Research Lab in China is closing or being relocated?
Closing
Dec 30, 2024 05:00AM UTC
·
232
·
859
5%
Chance
By 31 December 2024, will uranium enriched to 90% or more be discovered in an Iranian facility, according to the IAEA?
Closing
Jan 01, 2025 05:00AM UTC
·
95
·
857
1%
Chance
Will Iran eliminate its stockpile of uranium enriched up to 60% by 31 December 2024, according to the IAEA?
Closing
Jan 01, 2025 05:00AM UTC
·
88
·
852
Will Iran agree to limit uranium enrichment to 5% or less in the next 6 months?
Closing
Jan 01, 2025 05:00AM UTC
·
107
·
827
0%
Chance
Will Iran launch missiles or conduct an airstrike against U.S. forces in the next six months?
Closing
Jan 01, 2025 05:00AM UTC
·
113
·
786
2%
Chance
Will Israel and Saudi Arabia publicly acknowledge that they are resuming the normalization process in the next six months?
Closing
Jan 01, 2025 05:00AM UTC
·
112
·
786
0%
Chance
Will Russia deliver the below weapons systems to Iran before 1 February 2025?
Closing
Feb 01, 2025 05:00AM UTC
·
79
·
762
Before 1 January 2025, will Iran announce that it will leave the JCPOA ("Iran nuclear deal")?
Closing
Jan 01, 2025 05:00AM UTC
·
100
·
752
1%
Chance
1
2
3
4
5
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