RAND Forecasting Initiative

Question

Crowd Forecast

By 31 December 2024, will uranium enriched to 90% or more be discovered in an Iranian facility, according to the IAEA?

Closed Jan 01, 2025 05:00AM UTC · 100 · 1029

0%

Chance

Will Russia deliver the below weapons systems to Iran before 1 February 2025?

Closed Feb 01, 2025 05:00AM UTC · 92 · 1026

Will Iran agree to limit uranium enrichment to 5% or less in the next 6 months?

Closed Jan 01, 2025 05:00AM UTC · 111 · 1008

0%

Chance

Will Iran launch missiles or conduct an airstrike against U.S. forces in the next six months?

Closed Jan 01, 2025 05:00AM UTC · 120 · 1006

1%

Chance

Will Israel and Saudi Arabia publicly acknowledge that they are resuming the normalization process in the next six months?

Closed Jan 01, 2025 05:00AM UTC · 118 · 994

1%

Chance

Will Ali Khamenei flee Iran or cease to be Supreme Leader in the next year?

Closed Apr 01, 2025 04:00AM UTC · 136 · 946

9%

Chance

In the next six months, will the Global Protest Tracker record an anti-government protest in Iran with 10,000 or more participants lasting at least a week?

Closed Jan 01, 2025 05:00AM UTC · 77 · 711

12%

Chance

What will be the price of the Dutch TTF futures monthly contracts between March 2022 and February 2023?

Closed Mar 01, 2023 04:59AM UTC · 47 · 631

What will the Senate's average Bipartisan Index score be from 2021-2022?

Closed Jan 01, 2022 04:59AM UTC · 148 · 593

How politically polarized will U.S. citizens be in 2024?

Closed Jan 01, 2022 04:59AM UTC · 231 · 556

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By 31 December 2024, will uranium enriched to 90% or more be discovered in an Iranian facility, according to the IAEA?

0%

Will Russia deliver the below weapons systems to Iran before 1 February 2025?

Will Iran agree to limit uranium enrichment to 5% or less in the next 6 months?

0%

Will Iran launch missiles or conduct an airstrike against U.S. forces in the next six months?

1%

Will Israel and Saudi Arabia publicly acknowledge that they are resuming the normalization process in the next six months?

1%

Will Ali Khamenei flee Iran or cease to be Supreme Leader in the next year?

9%

In the next six months, will the Global Protest Tracker record an anti-government protest in Iran with 10,000 or more participants lasting at least a week?

12%

What will be the price of the Dutch TTF futures monthly contracts between March 2022 and February 2023?

What will the Senate's average Bipartisan Index score be from 2021-2022?

How politically polarized will U.S. citizens be in 2024?

Status

Season

Sort By

Filter By

Topics

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0%

0%

1%

1%

9%

12%