RAND Forecasting Initiative

SPECIAL NOTICE: INFER is now the RAND Forecasting Initiative (RFI). Learn more about RFI.

Question

Crowd Forecast

Will the People's Liberation Army invade, blockade, or attack the main island of Taiwan in the next six months?

Closed Apr 01, 2024 04:00AM UTC · 173 · 1104

1%

Chance

Will the Global Protest Tracker record a significant antigovernment protest involving 10,000 or more participants in Thailand between April 2023 and April 2024?

Closed May 01, 2024 04:00AM UTC · 69 · 679

0%

Chance

What will be the price of the Dutch TTF futures monthly contracts between March 2022 and February 2023?

Closed Mar 01, 2023 04:59AM UTC · 47 · 631

What will the Senate's average Bipartisan Index score be from 2021-2022?

Closed Jan 01, 2022 04:59AM UTC · 148 · 593

How politically polarized will U.S. citizens be in 2024?

Closed Jan 01, 2022 04:59AM UTC · 231 · 556

Will Houthi rebels execute an attack against an Israeli civil or military vessel in the next 6 months?

Closed Jul 01, 2024 04:00AM UTC · 88 · 551

6%

Chance

How will annual money raised by U.S. tech startups change over the next three years?

Closed Jan 01, 2023 04:59AM UTC · 79 · 526

How will the combined annual revenue of Alphabet, Amazon, Apple, Facebook, and Microsoft change over the next three years?

Closed Aug 24, 2022 11:00AM UTC · 102 · 514

How will the percentage of U.S residents who are concerned about how the government uses their data change over the next three years?

Closed Apr 01, 2022 11:00PM UTC · 155 · 480

Which company will be the largest semiconductor company by sales revenue in 2022?

Closed Nov 01, 2022 04:00AM UTC · 82 · 413

Status

Season

Sort By

Filter By

Topics

Select All

Will the People's Liberation Army invade, blockade, or attack the main island of Taiwan in the next six months?

1%

Will the Global Protest Tracker record a significant antigovernment protest involving 10,000 or more participants in Thailand between April 2023 and April 2024?

0%

What will be the price of the Dutch TTF futures monthly contracts between March 2022 and February 2023?

What will the Senate's average Bipartisan Index score be from 2021-2022?

How politically polarized will U.S. citizens be in 2024?

Will Houthi rebels execute an attack against an Israeli civil or military vessel in the next 6 months?

6%

How will annual money raised by U.S. tech startups change over the next three years?

How will the combined annual revenue of Alphabet, Amazon, Apple, Facebook, and Microsoft change over the next three years?

How will the percentage of U.S residents who are concerned about how the government uses their data change over the next three years?

Which company will be the largest semiconductor company by sales revenue in 2022?

Status

Season

Sort By

Filter By

Topics

Tags

1%

0%

6%