SPECIAL NOTICE:
INFER is now the RAND Forecasting Initiative (RFI).
Learn more about RFI
.
Toggle navigation
FAQ
See Forecasts
Blog
Join Now
Sign In
Topics
Questions
The Question Lab
Filters
Status
Active
Coming Soon
Completed
Active
Pending Resolution
Resolved
Suspended
Season
All
All
2024 Season
2023 Season
2022 Season
2021 Season
2020 Season
Sort By
Start Date
End Date
Number of Forecasts
Number of Forecasters
Alphabetically
Filter By
Featured Questions
Topics
Select All
Artificial Intelligence (4)
only
China Politics, Relati... (1)
only
International Diplomac... (38)
only
Iran: Threats & Influence (16)
only
Microelectronic Techno... (1)
only
Russia-Ukraine War (8)
only
Science & Technology (12)
only
Show more
Tags
Select All
No Tags
only
Iran Nuclear Program (11)
only
Iran-VNSAs (5)
only
Open RAN (4)
only
Africa (3)
only
East Asia Security (3)
only
Russian Disinformation (3)
only
Economic Debt (2)
only
Cybersecurity (1)
only
Show more
Question
Crowd Forecast
By 31 December 2024, will Microsoft announce that its AI Research Lab in China is closing or being relocated?
Closing
Dec 30, 2024 05:00AM UTC
·
232
·
857
5%
Chance
Will there be an agreed-upon pause in the conflict between Israel and Hamas that starts before 1 December 2024 and lasts at least 30 days?
Closing
Dec 01, 2024 05:00AM UTC
·
155
·
1332
19%
Chance
Will Vladimir Putin cease to be the president of the Russian Federation before 1 July 2025?
Closing
Jul 01, 2025 04:00AM UTC
·
123
·
351
1%
Chance
Will Iran launch missiles or conduct an airstrike against U.S. forces in the next six months?
Closing
Jan 01, 2025 05:00AM UTC
·
113
·
784
2%
Chance
Will Israel and Saudi Arabia publicly acknowledge that they are resuming the normalization process in the next six months?
Closing
Jan 01, 2025 05:00AM UTC
·
112
·
784
0%
Chance
Will Russia invade Estonia, Latvia, and/or Lithuania before 1 April 2027?
Closing
Apr 01, 2027 04:00AM UTC
·
110
·
513
Will Iran agree to limit uranium enrichment to 5% or less in the next 6 months?
Closing
Jan 01, 2025 05:00AM UTC
·
107
·
825
0%
Chance
On 31 May 2025, will Nvidia be the world’s most valuable company by market cap?
Closing
May 03, 2025 04:00AM UTC
·
101
·
336
12%
Chance
Will any of the following countries recognize Israel’s statehood by 31 December 2024?
Closing
Jan 01, 2025 05:00AM UTC
·
100
·
901
Before 1 January 2025, will Iran announce that it will leave the JCPOA ("Iran nuclear deal")?
Closing
Jan 01, 2025 05:00AM UTC
·
100
·
750
1%
Chance
1
2
3
4
5
Next ›
Last »
Files
Remove
Tip: Mention someone by typing @username
Publish Anonymously
Cancel