RAND Forecasting Initiative

Question

Crowd Forecast

Will Russia invade Estonia, Latvia, and/or Lithuania before 1 April 2027?

Closing Apr 01, 2027 04:00AM UTC · 210 · 2051

Will Russia invade Moldova, Armenia, Georgia, and/or Kazakhstan before 1 April 2027?

Closing Apr 01, 2027 04:00AM UTC · 162 · 1730

Will human bioengineering activities cause a biological event of high consequence (pandemic, panzootic, or epiphytotic) before 1 January 2030?

Closing Jan 01, 2030 05:00AM UTC · 124 · 921

7%

Chance

Will another Chinese military base in an African country (excluding Djibouti) be under construction or established by 1 January 2027?

Closing Jan 01, 2027 05:00AM UTC · 118 · 1048

16%

Chance

Will Huawei sell or announce plans to sell Open RAN equipment before 1 January 2027?

Closing Jan 01, 2027 05:00AM UTC · 80 · 1029

3%

Chance

Will a U.S. or U.S.-ally satellite be permanently disabled by another country or organization before 1 January 2027?

Closing Jan 01, 2027 05:00AM UTC · 78 · 281

7%

Chance

Will the FDA have authorized a medical device that incorporates LLM-based functionality by 31 March 2026?

Closing Apr 01, 2026 04:00AM UTC · 73 · 170

4%

Chance

Will a new multilateral security agreement involving at least three Middle East and North Africa (MENA) states (excluding Iran, Saudi Arabia, Turkey, and Israel) be publicly announced by 30 June 2026?

Closing Jul 01, 2026 04:00AM UTC · 56 · 208

6%

Chance

Will Sudan’s Rapid Support Forces retake control over Khartoum city by 31 March 2026?

Closing Apr 01, 2026 04:00AM UTC · 54 · 125

1%

Chance

Will China, Russia, the U.S., or the EU publicly announce new economic or trade sanctions that specifically target a state-owned oil or gas entity in Egypt, Jordan, or the United Arab Emirates (UAE) by 30 June 2026?

Closing Jul 01, 2026 04:00AM UTC · 53 · 153

3%

Chance

Status

Season

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Will Russia invade Estonia, Latvia, and/or Lithuania before 1 April 2027?

Will Russia invade Moldova, Armenia, Georgia, and/or Kazakhstan before 1 April 2027?

Will human bioengineering activities cause a biological event of high consequence (pandemic, panzootic, or epiphytotic) before 1 January 2030?

7%

Will another Chinese military base in an African country (excluding Djibouti) be under construction or established by 1 January 2027?

16%

Will Huawei sell or announce plans to sell Open RAN equipment before 1 January 2027?

3%

Will a U.S. or U.S.-ally satellite be permanently disabled by another country or organization before 1 January 2027?

7%

Will the FDA have authorized a medical device that incorporates LLM-based functionality by 31 March 2026?

4%

Will a new multilateral security agreement involving at least three Middle East and North Africa (MENA) states (excluding Iran, Saudi Arabia, Turkey, and Israel) be publicly announced by 30 June 2026?

6%

Will Sudan’s Rapid Support Forces retake control over Khartoum city by 31 March 2026?

1%

Will China, Russia, the U.S., or the EU publicly announce new economic or trade sanctions that specifically target a state-owned oil or gas entity in Egypt, Jordan, or the United Arab Emirates (UAE) by 30 June 2026?

3%

Status

Season

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Filter By

Topics

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7%

16%

3%

7%

4%

6%

1%

3%