RAND Forecasting Initiative

Question

Crowd Forecast

Will the People's Liberation Army invade, blockade, or attack the main island of Taiwan in the next six months?

Closed Jan 01, 2026 05:00AM UTC · 248 · 1641

2%

Chance

How politically polarized will U.S. citizens be in 2024?

Closed Jan 01, 2022 04:59AM UTC · 231 · 556

Will North Korea conduct a nuclear test within the next six months?

Closed Jan 01, 2026 05:00AM UTC · 156 · 1212

1%

Chance

How will the percentage of U.S residents who are concerned about how the government uses their data change over the next three years?

Closed Apr 01, 2022 11:00PM UTC · 155 · 480

What will the Senate's average Bipartisan Index score be from 2021-2022?

Closed Jan 01, 2022 04:59AM UTC · 148 · 593

In the next 18 months, will a Russian government cyber attack occur against energy or transportation infrastructure within a NATO country that produces a kinetic effect, causing physical damage or human casualties?

Closed Jan 01, 2026 05:00AM UTC · 147 · 1042

4%

Chance

[Experimental] Did COVID-19 originate in a lab in Wuhan, China?

Closed Oct 01, 2021 05:59PM UTC · 144 · 387

35%

Chance

Will any listed Muslim-majority country sign an agreement establishing or normalizing diplomatic relations with Israel in the next six months?

Closed Jan 01, 2026 05:00AM UTC · 144 · 1523

1%

Chance

If a bilateral ceasefire or peace agreement in the Russo-Ukraine conflict goes into effect in 2025, how long will it last?

Closed Jan 01, 2026 05:00AM UTC · 140 · 871

Will Ali Khamenei flee Iran or cease to be Supreme Leader in the next year?

Closed Apr 01, 2025 04:00AM UTC · 136 · 946

9%

Chance

Status

Season

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Will the People's Liberation Army invade, blockade, or attack the main island of Taiwan in the next six months?

2%

How politically polarized will U.S. citizens be in 2024?

Will North Korea conduct a nuclear test within the next six months?

1%

How will the percentage of U.S residents who are concerned about how the government uses their data change over the next three years?

What will the Senate's average Bipartisan Index score be from 2021-2022?

In the next 18 months, will a Russian government cyber attack occur against energy or transportation infrastructure within a NATO country that produces a kinetic effect, causing physical damage or human casualties?

4%

[Experimental] Did COVID-19 originate in a lab in Wuhan, China?

35%

Will any listed Muslim-majority country sign an agreement establishing or normalizing diplomatic relations with Israel in the next six months?

1%

If a bilateral ceasefire or peace agreement in the Russo-Ukraine conflict goes into effect in 2025, how long will it last?

Will Ali Khamenei flee Iran or cease to be Supreme Leader in the next year?

9%

Status

Season

Sort By

Filter By

Topics

Tags

2%

1%

4%

35%

1%

9%