RAND Forecasting Initiative

Question

Crowd Forecast

Will there be an attack on an Iranian nuclear- or offensive missile-related facility in the next 6 months?

Closing May 01, 2025 04:00AM UTC · 70 · 306

60%

Chance

Will Ali Khamenei flee Iran or cease to be Supreme Leader in the next year?

Closing Apr 01, 2025 04:00AM UTC · 96 · 468

8%

Chance

Will Iran be at war with another country in the next year?

Closing Jan 01, 2026 05:00AM UTC · 93 · 573

25%

Chance

Will any listed Muslim-majority country sign an agreement establishing or normalizing diplomatic relations with Israel in the next six months?

Closing Jan 01, 2026 05:00AM UTC · 78 · 523

0%

Chance

Will Iran eliminate its stockpile of uranium enriched up to 60% by 31 December 2024, according to the IAEA?

Closing Jan 01, 2025 05:00AM UTC · 88 · 850

Will Iran agree to limit uranium enrichment to 5% or less in the next 6 months?

Closing Jan 01, 2025 05:00AM UTC · 107 · 825

0%

Chance

Before 1 January 2025, will Iran announce that it will leave the JCPOA ("Iran nuclear deal")?

Closing Jan 01, 2025 05:00AM UTC · 100 · 750

1%

Chance

Will Russia deliver the below weapons systems to Iran before 1 February 2025?

Closing Feb 01, 2025 05:00AM UTC · 79 · 759

By 31 December 2024, will uranium enriched to 90% or more be discovered in an Iranian facility, according to the IAEA?

Closing Jan 01, 2025 05:00AM UTC · 95 · 854

1%

Chance

Will a JCPOA participant country begin the process of imposing “snapback” sanctions on Iran by 31 December 2024?

Closing Jan 01, 2025 05:00AM UTC · 68 · 605

1%

Chance

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Will there be an attack on an Iranian nuclear- or offensive missile-related facility in the next 6 months?

60%

Will Ali Khamenei flee Iran or cease to be Supreme Leader in the next year?

8%

Will Iran be at war with another country in the next year?

25%

Will any listed Muslim-majority country sign an agreement establishing or normalizing diplomatic relations with Israel in the next six months?

0%

Will Iran eliminate its stockpile of uranium enriched up to 60% by 31 December 2024, according to the IAEA?

Will Iran agree to limit uranium enrichment to 5% or less in the next 6 months?

0%

Before 1 January 2025, will Iran announce that it will leave the JCPOA ("Iran nuclear deal")?

1%

Will Russia deliver the below weapons systems to Iran before 1 February 2025?

By 31 December 2024, will uranium enriched to 90% or more be discovered in an Iranian facility, according to the IAEA?

1%

Will a JCPOA participant country begin the process of imposing “snapback” sanctions on Iran by 31 December 2024?

1%

Status

Season

Sort By

Filter By

Topics

Tags

60%

8%

25%

0%

0%

1%

1%

1%