Yes, the stockpile will be reduced by 100% to 0 kg
0%
(0%)
No, the stockpile will be reduced by 50% or more (>0 kg - 61.8 kg)
3%
(-1%)
No, the stockpile will be reduced by less than 50% (>61.8 kg - 123.6 kg)
96%
(+1%)
No, the stockpile will increase (>123.6 kg)
Why do you think you're right?
Iran might be getting a new, less 'hard-line' president depending on the outcome of run-off elections. It seems to me like the executive decision on the nuclear programme is taken by the Ayatollah rather than the president, so I wouldn't update too strongly on this information. That said, there's a small chance that a reformist candidate could be more conducive to diplomatic efforts in which Iran get a better deal in exchange for reducing HEU stockpiles.
So, why am I increasing my certainty that they'll increase the HEU stockpile?:
It seems to me like the Iranians might just be going full steam ahead to try to get the bomb at this point. They seem fairly close, and now seems like as strategically advantageous as any time
Perhaps increased production capacity means they don't have to stockpile as much. But if you can, and you aren't that bothered about the consequences, and other states have a history of attacking your production facilities — why not stockpile?
Why do you think you're right?
Iran might be getting a new, less 'hard-line' president depending on the outcome of run-off elections. It seems to me like the executive decision on the nuclear programme is taken by the Ayatollah rather than the president, so I wouldn't update too strongly on this information. That said, there's a small chance that a reformist candidate could be more conducive to diplomatic efforts in which Iran get a better deal in exchange for reducing HEU stockpiles.
So, why am I increasing my certainty that they'll increase the HEU stockpile?:
See also: Semafor
Why might you be wrong?
Perhaps increased production capacity means they don't have to stockpile as much. But if you can, and you aren't that bothered about the consequences, and other states have a history of attacking your production facilities — why not stockpile?