SPECIAL NOTICE: INFER is now the RAND Forecasting Initiative (RFI). Learn more about RFI.
 

RFI Blog

Forecasting Russian Disinformation Efforts in Germany and Its Effect on European Support for Ukraine

By: RFI Team | Oct 01, 2024 02:41PM UTC

RAND's Information Warfare Research Team is researching Russian disinformation in Europe, focusing on its impact on German public opinion and policy regarding Ukraine, especially in light of Germany's 2025 elections. Learn how new forecast questions on Russian disinformation contribute toward this research.

Forecasting Like a Pro: Q&A with Jordan Despanie

By: Marie Jones, Co-Director of RFI | Sep 11, 2024 05:09PM UTC

RAND fellow Jordan Despanie shares insights on crowdsourced forecasting techniques and their application to technology and security policy in a new blog interview.

Helping RAND Researchers Bring Focus to Africa’s Security Issues

By: RFI Team | Aug 29, 2024 07:03PM UTC

Q&A with Marie Jones, co-director of the RAND Forecasting Initiative (RFI). Learn how new forecast questions on Africa contribute towards research on key under-examined security issues impacting Africa and African diaspora countries.

How RAND is Forecasting the Probability of War Between Israel and Hezbollah

By: RFI Team | Jul 25, 2024 02:20PM UTC

A new blog post from RAND highlights how their researchers are using crowdsourced forecasting to augment traditional RAND expertise and analysis in their assessment of the potential that Israel may declare war on Hezbollah.

INFER explores the future of Open RAN

By: INFER Team | May 20, 2024 06:19PM UTC

INFER has launched a new strategic topic on the Open RAN ecosystem for a U.S. government stakeholder to determine the extent to which the U.S. should continue investing in this effort.

How they do it: Lessons learned from our top forecasters

By: Leah Schroeder | Mar 18, 2024 04:17PM UTC

We spoke to some of the forecasters who ranked in the top 20% of the 2023 leaderboard about how they approached the forecasting process, and what techniques they believe made their performance stand out during the season.

Q&A with two Pro Forecasters and national security experts

By: INFER Team | Feb 27, 2024 07:18PM UTC

We talked with Pro Forecasters Geoff Odlum and Trent Hesslink about their experiences in forecasting, and the impact of crowd forecasting for governments and national security. 

INFER now the RAND Forecasting Initiative

By: RFI Team | Feb 09, 2024 01:10AM UTC

We're pleased to announce that INFER is now the RAND Forecasting Initiative (RFI). 

INFER's Best of 2023: Celebrating forecaster accomplishments

By: INFER Team | Jan 23, 2024 03:20PM UTC

INFER is pleased to share the Best of 2023 list, celebrating our most accurate and engaged forecasters from last season.

Looking back: How INFER navigated global uncertainty in 2023

By: INFER Team | Dec 18, 2023 07:11PM UTC

We are concluding INFER’s second year of crowd forecasting following a year rife with uncertainty for policymakers. INFER’s community of forecasters parsed complex issues to make sense of critical events that will shape the future for years to come.

Forecasting the next stage of the Israel-Hamas war

By: Walter Frick | Nov 07, 2023 03:29PM UTC

INFER forecasters and experts weigh in on questions related to the Israel-Hamas war, including the chance of a ceasefire in Gaza, the likelihood of Saudi Arabia normalizing relations with Israel, of Iran and Israel going to war, and more. 


INFER explores how Iran will use violent non-state actors (VNSAs) to advance its agenda

By: INFER Team | Nov 02, 2023 07:13PM UTC

INFER has launched a new strategic topic to support a U.S. Government stakeholder who wants to understand the future outlook of Iran’s influence on violent non-state actors.

Forecasting Iran’s nuclear development

By: INFER Team | Oct 06, 2023 09:12PM UTC

Three years after the U.S. pulled out of the Iran Nuclear Deal, Iran began ignoring the deal’s restrictions on its nuclear program. Now, using our issue decomposition process, INFER is assessing the likelihood that Iran will produce a nuclear weapon.

Google experts join INFER forecasting meetup to explore the future of AI

By: INFER Team | Sep 25, 2023 05:37PM UTC

A recap of a special forecasting event INFER hosted about the future of AI, attended by select INFER forecasters and nearly two dozen forecasting enthusiasts who work at Google, joining in a personal capacity.

How INFER enhances the connection between hard science and policy

By: Henry Tolchard | Sep 25, 2023 04:17PM UTC

INFER aims to strengthen the connection between science and policymaking when it comes to assessing risks by providing a new source of information that can serve as a complement to scientific assessments.

What’s next for the Iran nuclear deal?

By: Walter Frick | Sep 13, 2023 09:17PM UTC

Does the JCPOA—or something like it—have a future? Forecasters at INFER have been tackling a series of questions related to the deal and to Iran’s nuclear ambitions. They’ve forecasted the likelihood of Iran leaving the JCPOA, as well as of other participants enacting “snapback” sanctions.

Using AI to improve your forecast rationale

By: Henry Tolchard | Jul 27, 2023 08:09PM UTC

In this post, we explore how you can use an AI tool like ChatGPT to gain a quick understanding of a complex forecast topic as well as improve the logical support behind your rationale.

INFER crowd and expert forecasts shape a talk for government officials on how AI will impact disinformation campaigns

By: Walter Frick | Jul 19, 2023 03:24PM UTC

Are we entering an era of even more rampant misinformation with the rise of AI? That was the focus of a recent talk supported by INFER as part of the Phoenix Challenge, a seminar series for senior officials in governments, think tanks and other policy experts. See how the INFER crowd forecasts on this topic compared with the experts.

INFER forecasters weigh the prospects of Ukraine’s counteroffensive

By: Walter Frick | Jun 27, 2023 04:31PM UTC

All spring, the world waited for Ukraine’s counter-offensive against Russia to begin. Now that it is under way, policymakers around the world are closely monitoring its prospects. Forecasters at INFER are tracking the conflict, too, and predicting the amount of territory each side will hold by the end of the year. 

INFER forecasters: Don’t expect GPT-5 anytime soon

By: Walter Frick | May 22, 2023 09:03PM UTC

The next generation of OpenAI’s technology isn't likely to arrive this year, according to INFER forecasters as well as analysts tracking AI. In the meantime, though, OpenAI likely has other priorities.

Team Leads cross the finish line on half-year forecasting tournament with teammates

By: INFER Team | May 10, 2023 01:28PM UTC

Last fall, INFER introduced a new Team Lead opportunity for forecasters who were interested in getting others in their community involved in crowd forecasting. Team Leads were tasked with recruiting and leading a team of forecasters in a six-month forecasting tournament that ended in April.

Introducing the INFER mobile app

By: INFER Team | May 08, 2023 07:33PM UTC

Our forecasters have been asking for a mobile app – and we are excited to share that it is now available for INFER. You will now be able to submit forecasts on critical questions to support INFER’s government stakeholders directly from our native app on a phone or tablet. 

INFER forecasters: Egypt’s inflation could get worse before it gets better

By: Walter Frick | May 01, 2023 09:31PM UTC

Inflation has been surging in Egypt since Russia’s invasion of Ukraine in February 2022, and it shows little sign of abating, according to both experts and INFER forecasters. In fact, it’s probable that Egypt’s inflation problem will get worse.

What’s the future outlook for biofuels?

By: Walter Frick | Apr 19, 2023 05:47PM UTC

The world will need to ramp up its use of biofuels in order to decarbonize transportation, according to the International Energy Agency.  But, will that happen? What will contribute to growth in this sector? See what forecasters on INFER are saying about this topic across a range of questions that speak to both biofuels’ short- and long-term potential. 

How our 2023 Pro Forecasters earned their spot and welcoming the new Pro All Stars

By: INFER Team | Mar 23, 2023 04:55PM UTC

INFER welcomed a new cohort of 85 Pro Forecasters with a kickoff event in February. Pros were selected to be part of the paid program for their proven forecasting performance, and play a key role in generating quality data for U.S. Government decision makers. 10 Pros were recognized with a new All Star designation!

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