RAND Forecasting Initiative | RFI Blog - Middle East & North Africa: Power Balances & Economic Security

The RAND Forecasting Initiative (RFI) has launched a new series of questions on the Middle East and North Africa (MENA), focusing on regional power balances and their implications for economic security in the region.

The questions are designed to track and anticipate shifts in influence among key regional actors (Iran, Saudi Arabia, Turkey, Israel), the intensity and spillover of potential proxy conflicts, the economic vulnerabilities of neighboring states, the evolution of diplomatic and collective security efforts, and the role of external powers in shaping future regional autonomy and stability.

We've released three forecast questions in the MENA series over the last couple weeks. Below, RAND's research team explains how crowd forecasts can help their investigation and eventual policy recommendations:

Q: Why did you prioritize these questions - what about the broader issue will they help you understand?

A: These questions are prioritized to help illuminate the complex and dynamic interplay between regional power competition and economic security across the MENA region. Focusing the questions on specific drivers (e.g., military presence, proxy conflict intensity, economic indicators, diplomatic initiatives) aim to capture early signals of key (potential) shifts. This approach will help RFI understand not only the likelihood of escalation or de-escalation in regional rivalries, but also potential downstream effects on economic stability, humanitarian needs, and the prospects for regional integration or fragmentation. The three questions for forecasters are meant to help us anticipate a range of possible futures in the region. These could include periods of cautious cooperation and economic growth, renewed conflict between rival powers, or the creation of stronger regional security partnerships. Your forecasts will help us understand which of these scenarios is most probable.

Q: How will these questions inform your research analysis - how are you planning to use the outputs?

A: The outputs from these questions will directly inform analysis for a nongovernment organization that aims to promote regional development through concrete policies and projects. Your forecasts on these three questions will help to:

Map potential trajectories for regional power balances and their economic consequences;
Identify early warning signs of instability or opportunity for economic cooperation;
Assess the resilience of neighboring states to shocks from conflict or external intervention;
Support scenario planning for policymakers and international organizations seeking to promote stability, economic security, and regional autonomy.

Q: Are there specific resources or information you think would be valuable for forecasters participating in these questions?

A: Forecasters may find the following resources valuable:

Recent reports and data from the International Monetary Fund (IMF), World Bank, United Nations Conference on Trade and Development (UNCTAD), and major credit rating agencies (Moody’s, S&P, Fitch) on MENA economic trends;
News and analysis from regional think tanks (e.g., Carnegie Middle East Center, Arab Gulf States Institute, International Crisis Group) on security and diplomatic developments;
UN and humanitarian agency updates on conflict zones, refugee flows, and humanitarian needs;
Official statements and policy documents from MENA governments and regional organizations (e.g., Arab League, GCC);
Academic and policy research on proxy conflicts, regional alliances, and external power involvement in the Middle East. Access to up-to-date data on trade, FDI, and cross-border incidents will also be helpful for making informed forecasts.

Q: What forecast questions are part of this effort?

A: Forecasters can participate in three questions under the “MENA” tag on RFI: