RAND Forecasting Initiative | RFI Blog - Forecasting Biotech Talent and Resources for Pandemic Preparedness

The RAND Forecasting Initiative (RFI) has released a series of forecasting questions to estimate the number of individuals globally who have the capability to cause a pandemic. This does not include state-affiliated actors working in an official capacity.

This question series will focus on the number of new researchers with advanced research skills entering the Virology workforce, as well as resources available to biotechnology startups to conduct pathological research. Insights from forecasters will inform ongoing research efforts to estimate the resources available in the biotechnology field, illuminating risks that may arise as non-state actor virology capabilities increase.

What virology infrastructure is of interest? Why explore this now?

RAND researchers are interested in several pieces of information related to talent and resources in the biotechnology field. Specifically, they are assessing the number of individuals that will graduate from accredited Virology PhD programs in the United States, and seed funding for biotechnology startups in the United States, Europe, and globally.

Virology PhD graduates are likely to possess the expertise to conduct consequential research on high-risk pathogens that pose a threat of widespread viral infection if accidentally or deliberately released, such as the SARS-CoV-2 and Marburg viruses. According to the National Science Foundation, the number of annual virology PhD graduates has increased since 2021, reflecting growing interest in Virology as the field makes key medical advances. Interest in the discipline is also thought to have increased since the COVID-19 pandemic. Estimates on the future of the output of individuals with advanced PhDs will allow researchers to ascertain the state of the virology workforce in the near future.

The talent forecasting question on new virology graduates is paired with three questions regarding total seed funding for biotechnology startups between 2025 and 2026. Seed funding is capital a company receives from investors to develop a product offering. In the biotechnology industry, seed funding is often used to conduct research into novel biotechnology services and products. Increased funding in this sector may enable researchers to acquire and experiment with high-risk pathogens that have pandemic potential. A 2025 RAND study found that advances in artificial intelligence further lower the barriers to entry for bad actors to acquire and employ dangerous pathogens, compounding the risks posed by greater investment in biotechnology. Forecasts on total seed funding in the field will help researchers quantify the resources that are available to conduct research in emerging biotechnology fields, which will inform estimates to quantify this risk. Biotechnology funding in the United States and Europe is of specific interest, as they are two of the largest biotechnology markets in the world, alongside China.

How your forecasts will help inform RAND work

RFI forecasting results will provide additional assurance of other RAND biosecurity estimation efforts. Higher assurance estimates of these quantities will help biosecurity philanthropists allocate biosecurity resources more effectively. They will also inform strategic decisions on vulnerability and hazard disclosure or potential dual-use concerns of biotechnology funding proposals. Similarly, forecasting results will help intelligence community and national security audiences to improve their threat awareness of biosecurity risks emanating from the private sector, helping inform the allocation of collection and investigation resources more proportionally to estimated risk.

Additional research for forecasters

Below is a list of sources that forecasters may wish to consult as they conduct background research on this topic.

Overview of private investment in the biotechnology industry: Labiotech, U.S. Bio Investment
U.S. government report on the future of the biotechnology sector: Global Trends 2040, The Future of Biotech
European Parliament: Report on the future of the EU biotechnology and biomanufacturing sectors
Paper on the impact of COVID-19 on academic pathology and virology research: Blakey et al, 2021
Paper on the increasing prominence of Virology in academia: Rijs and Fenter, 2020

Get started forecasting on this series

Below are the four questions that make up this series (all are tagged under 'biotech').