On March 18, the RAND Forecasting Initiative (RFI) partnered with two established crowdsourced forecasting platforms––the Swedish Defence Research Agency’s Glimt and the online forecasting platform Metaculus––to launch two questions about the timing and durability of a potential ceasefire in the Russo-Ukraine conflict.

Glimt brings together a large community of primarily Swedish forecasters on questions focused on the war in Ukraine. Metaculus, based in the U.S., has a broad global user base and a track record of tackling diverse forecasting challenges. By comparing forecasts from our diverse communities, this collaboration aims to provide a better picture of expectations for peace prospects and highlight differences in forecaster judgments across the three platforms.

The Questions

1. When will a bilateral ceasefire or peace agreement in the Russo-Ukraine conflict first go into effect? [RFI, Metaculus, Glimt]

2. If a bilateral ceasefire or peace agreement in the Russo-Ukraine conflict goes into effect in 2025, how long will it last? [RFI, Metaculus, Glimt]

Initial Forecast Trends (as of March 31 and May 8)

Question	Possible Answers	Probability Forecast March 31			Probability Forecast May 8
		RFI	Metaculus	Glimt	RFI	Metaculus	Glimt
When will a bilateral ceasefire or peace agreement in the Russo-Ukraine conflict first go into effect?	Apr–Jun 2025	8%	27%	9%	9%	10%	7%
	Jul–Sep 2025	15%	24%	12%	7%	22%	13%
	Oct–Dec 2025	15%	22%	22%	12%	21%	20%
	Not before 2026	61%	26%	56%	72%	47%	60%
If a bilateral ceasefire or peace agreement in the Russo-Ukraine conflict goes into effect in 2025, how long will it last?	Less than 30 days	51%	27%	69%	58%	33%	69%
	30 days	10%	8%	12%	10%	11%	12%
	31–60 days	10%	16%	9%	8%	16%	8%
	61–90 days	8%	13%	4%	6%	13%	4%
	91 days or more	20%	37%	6%	17%	27%	8%

Question 1 received responses from 1,608 forecasters on Glimt, 47 on Metaculus, and 77 on RFI. Question 2 received responses from 2,568 forecasters on Glimt, 47 on Metaculus, and 112 on RFI. Both RFI and Metaculus have designated “Pro” forecasters, recognized for their strong accuracy records; across both questions, 27% of RFI forecasters and 8% of Metaculus forecasters were Pros. Some participants may have submitted forecasts on more than one platform. Both questions are scheduled to resolve by the end of 2025.

Question 1: Timing of Ceasefire

Across all three platforms, the consensus is that a ceasefire is unlikely to begin before 2026. As of May 8, the consensus forecast was a 72% probability for this outcome on RFI, 60% on Glimt, and 47% on Metaculus. Glimt’s consensus forecast remained relatively stable during the period the question was active compared to the other two platforms. Forecaster rationales and comments on RFI and Glimt highlight Russia's resistance to comprehensive and lasting peace as a key factor.

Question 2: Durability of Ceasefire

On the durability of a 2025 ceasefire, RFI and Glimt forecasters lean toward a shorter duration of less than 30 days (with the consensus forecast at 58% and 69%, respectively). Metaculus forecasters are more divided, with the consensus split between a ceasefire lasting 91 days or more, and one lasting less than 30 days. Compared to RFI and Glimt, the Metaculus crowd appears to expect a sooner and longer-lasting ceasefire. Forecaster rationales on RFI and Glimt point to Ukraine’s lack of trust in Russia, referencing failed attempts at limited ceasefires and unresolved core issues.

What’s Next

This collaboration between RFI, Glimt, and Metaculus is the start of an ongoing project assessing differing views on strategic issues across forecasting platforms. As these questions remain active, we will monitor how crowd estimates and rationales continue to develop and look for potential indications and warnings relevant to policymakers.

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