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RFI Blog

By the numbers: INFER forecasts increase and "time" is most popular word in April

By: Zev Burton | May 26, 2022 09:00PM UTC

In the first "By the Numbers," we explore the number of forecasts, how accurate forecasters were, and many other statistics about INFER forecasts during the month of April. 

New question release: AI patents, skill demand, and Chinese publications

By: INFER Team | May 13, 2022 08:42PM UTC

This week's new question release features questions on AI related patents, domestic demand for AI skills, and Chinese research output.

Dear Fern: I'm not an expert

By: INFER Team | May 10, 2022 04:11PM UTC

A new advice column in which forecasters write in to "Fern" for help with anything forecasting related. Today's forecaster writes in: I'm not an expert on AI or microelectronics, can I still forecast on these questions?

Who is winning the AI race: United States, China, or someone else?

By: INFER Team | May 03, 2022 07:41PM UTC

Learn about the factors we are assessing to understand the global state of artificial intelligence and which countries we will be focusing on with our new Strategic Question: Which countries will lead AI developments in research, technology, and human capital in the coming decade? 

Effective altruism students hone forecasting skills in first INFER tournament

By: Henry Tolchard | Apr 20, 2022 06:50PM UTC

INFER has launched its first tournament for effective altruism (EA) student groups. EA groups from top universities around the world are learning forecasting techniques and putting skills into practice in an attempt to be more accurate in predicting the future.

New question release: aluminum prices, lithography machines, and China’s top universities

By: INFER Team | Mar 31, 2022 08:34PM UTC

This week's new question release features questions on aluminum prices, sales of extreme ultraviolet lithography machinery to the U.S., and rankings of Chinese universities in computer science.

Microelectronics: A major factor for assessing U.S. competitiveness in AI

By: INFER Team | Mar 29, 2022 09:54PM UTC

Learn about all the factors we're assessing to understand the U.S. competitive position in microelectronics, a key contributor to the U.S. overall competitiveness in AI.

Assessing U.S. competitiveness in AI using crowdsourced forecasting

By: INFER Team | Mar 25, 2022 04:12PM UTC

Learn about INFER's U.S. Competitiveness in AI topic area and the decomposition we used to develop forecast questions.

Issue Decomposition: Getting Better Insights by Asking the Right Questions

By: RFI Team | Feb 18, 2022 10:51PM UTC

Learn how the RFI team uses a process called Issue Decomposition to break down broad, complex issues and questions into the forecast questions you see on the site.

New feature releases: analysis tab, comment filters

By: INFER Team | Feb 18, 2022 10:51PM UTC

We have recently introduced two new features on INFER to help you evaluate and use crowd forecasts and comments with greater ease and precision. Within each question page, you can now find 1) an Analysis tab and 2) comment filters.

Pro Forecasters: What they do and why they're an important part of INFER Public

By: INFER Team | Feb 02, 2022 04:49PM UTC

We've launched the 2022 Pro Forecaster program, comprised of 100 forecasters paid to dedicate time to forecasting, collaborating with other Pros, and attending exclusive trainings and events. Here's what's new for 2022, why INFER is investing in growing the program -- and how you can become a Pro!

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