The RAND Forecasting Initiative (RFI) is seeking forecasts that explore emerging capabilities in biotechnology and the biomedical sciences. This project specifically gauges the probability that critical scientific and regulatory breakthroughs might prove feasible over the next decade.
As part of this effort, we've released a series of forecast questions developed in collaboration with Jordan Despanie, a RAND technology and security policy (TASP) fellow. In this blog post, we discuss with Despanie how crowdsourced forecasting will inform this research effort.
Q: What topics do these questions cover, and how will forecasts inform research analysis?
A: This project leverages predictive insights to quantify the likelihood that translational research and regulatory approvals might be on the cusp of enabling breakthroughs across the following areas:
- automated chemical synthesis of proteins
- bioelectronics
- brain-computer interfaces (BCIs)
- in silico methods for preclinical evaluations of novel drugs
- medical countermeasures against chemical, biological, radiological, and nuclear (CBRN) threats
- traumatic brain injuries (TBIs)
- whole blood substitutes
By harnessing crowdsourced forecasting, we intend to monitor a broader landscape of signals and potential catalyst events involving the latest therapeutic capabilities.
Q: Why are these topics important?
A: Exploring progress in the areas under investigation today will allow us to shape the conversation concerning strategic and societal opportunities that will become available once these technologies mature. This work also provides technical and regulatory snapshots that help policymakers differentiate between the feasible and the speculative based on current biotechnology and biomedical capabilities.
We set December 31, 2030 as the forecasting cut-off for five of the seven questions since our rationale is that any innovations that will prove transformative over the next decade will likely have been in development by the five-year mark. This is because biomedical technologies are subject to long research and development cycles and a high regulatory proof of burden.
Q: Are there specific resources or information you think would be valuable for forecasters participating in these questions?
A: Forecasters would benefit from the following resources:
- Databases like PubMed containing academic publications (e.g., Artificial Blood: The History and Current Perspectives of Blood Substitutes)
- Biotech and biomedical industry outlets (e.g., FierceBiotech, STAT News)
- Announcements on company websites (e.g., New Study Shows Abbott's Blood Test for Concussion Could Predict Outcomes from Brain Injury and Inform Treatment Interventions)
- Data from Clinicaltrials.gov and other US-based regulatory affairs trackers
- Scientific news sources (e.g., New technology enables fast protein synthesis)
Q: What forecasting questions are part of this effort?
A: Invited forecasters can participate in seven questions under the “Biotechnology and Biomedical Capabilities” tag on RFI:
- Will the FDA grant market approval for a brain-computer interface (BCI) with indications for use in able-bodied individuals by 31 December 2030?
- Will a protein of at least 400 amino acids in length be successfully produced in a laboratory setting using automated chemical synthesis and verified by 31 December 2030?
- Will a shelf-stable whole blood substitute be FDA approved for human use by 31 December 2030?
- Will any CBRN weapons (chemical, biological, radiological, nuclear) be used by a state actor in an armed conflict by 31 December 2030?
- Will the FDA approve the repurposing of a drug originally indicated for a neurodegenerative disease to also treat traumatic brain injuries by 31 December 2030?
- Will the FDA accept an Investigational New Drug (IND) application for a novel drug containing preclinical evidence generated solely from in silico studies by 31 December 2035?
-
Which of the following categories will realize the most commercial adoption of bioelectronics by 31 December 2035?
- Implantable Devices
- Environmental Sensors
- Personal Electronics
- Advanced Computing
These questions will accept forecasts through 11 February 2025 and will not be scored due to the longer time horizons.
For more information on the TASP Fellowship please see here: Technology and Security Policy Fellows | RAND