Forecasting Biotechnology and Biomedical Breakthroughs

Author
RFI Team
Published
Jan 23, 2025 05:40PM UTC

The RAND Forecasting Initiative (RFI) is seeking forecasts that explore emerging capabilities in biotechnology and the biomedical sciences. This project specifically gauges the probability that critical scientific and regulatory breakthroughs might prove feasible over the next decade.

As part of this effort, we've released a series of forecast questions developed in collaboration with Jordan Despanie, a RAND technology and security policy (TASP) fellow. In this blog post, we discuss with Despanie how crowdsourced forecasting will inform this research effort. 


Q: What topics do these questions cover, and how will forecasts inform research analysis?

A: This project leverages predictive insights to quantify the likelihood that translational research and regulatory approvals might be on the cusp of enabling breakthroughs across the following areas:

  • automated chemical synthesis of proteins
  • bioelectronics
  • brain-computer interfaces (BCIs)
  • in silico methods for preclinical evaluations of novel drugs
  • medical countermeasures against chemical, biological, radiological, and nuclear (CBRN) threats
  • traumatic brain injuries (TBIs)
  • whole blood substitutes

By harnessing crowdsourced forecasting, we intend to monitor a broader landscape of signals and potential catalyst events involving the latest therapeutic capabilities.

Q: Why are these topics important?

A: Exploring progress in the areas under investigation today will allow us to shape the conversation concerning strategic and societal opportunities that will become available once these technologies mature. This work also provides technical and regulatory snapshots that help policymakers differentiate between the feasible and the speculative based on current biotechnology and biomedical capabilities.

We set December 31, 2030 as the forecasting cut-off for five of the seven questions since our rationale is that any innovations that will prove transformative over the next decade will likely have been in development by the five-year mark. This is because biomedical technologies are subject to long research and development cycles and a high regulatory proof of burden.  

Q: Are there specific resources or information you think would be valuable for forecasters participating in these questions?

A: Forecasters would benefit from the following resources:

Q: What forecasting questions are part of this effort?

A: Invited forecasters can participate in seven questions under the “Biotechnology and Biomedical Capabilities” tag on RFI: 

These questions will accept forecasts through 11 February 2025 and will not be scored due to the longer time horizons.


 For more information on the TASP Fellowship please see here: Technology and Security Policy Fellows | RAND

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