[EXPERIMENTAL] Which of the following categories will realize the most commercial adoption of bioelectronics by 31 December 2035?
Started
Jan 23, 2025 06:00PM UTC
Closing Feb 12, 2025 04:59AM UTC
Closing Feb 12, 2025 04:59AM UTC
This is an unscored, experimental question that closes for forecasting on 11 February 2025. We provide limited background information and resolution criteria on experimental questions, and forecasters should use their best judgement in assessing the question and submitting forecasts. This question is being used as further context for a more in-depth analysis by an RFI stakeholder.
For the purposes of this question, “bioelectronics” refers to the use of biological components or living matter in electronic systems. See examples below:
- Devices that use proteins or DNA as computing elements
- Electronic circuits that incorporate living cells as functional components
- Sensors that use biological molecules as the primary detection mechanism
- Bio-hybrid systems where biological processes are essential to the electronic function
While the term “bioelectronics” can also refer to electronics that interface directly with biological systems, we are not considering it as such for this question. Consequently, the application of traditional electronics to biological problems, such pacemakers or electronic devices to monitor blood sugar, will not be considered.
Commercial adoption would be measured by the number of unique devices with biological components on the market.
Category examples:
- Implantable Devices: Bioelectronic implants that interface with the nervous system; neural interfaces using biological components; bio-hybrid drug delivery systems; and living tissue-integrated sensors.
- Environmental Sensors: Biosensors using living cells or biomolecules; microbial fuel cells for environmental monitoring; bio-hybrid environmental detection systems; and living sensor systems for pollution/toxin detection.
- Personal Electronics: Wearable bioelectronic health monitors; bio-integrated personal diagnostic devices; skin-interfacing biological sensors; and bio-hybrid human-computer interfaces.
- Advanced Computing: DNA/molecular computing systems; neuromorphic chips using biological elements; bio-hybrid memory systems; and living cell-based processing units.
Forecasters should consider potential advancements, regulatory challenges, and market demand when assessing each category's likelihood of commercial adoption.
This question is part of a series on emerging capabilities in biotechnology and the biomedical sciences.