RAND Forecasting Initiative

Question

Crowd Forecast

Will scientists be able to assemble a ribosome in vitro, composed entirely of synthetic proteins and RNA, without the use of cell-derived materials by 2030?

Closing Jul 01, 2026 04:00AM UTC · 7 · 8

19%

Chance

Will any major international non-governmental research funders implement specific policies restricting or requiring oversight of mirror biology research by 31 December 2030?

Closing Jul 01, 2026 04:00AM UTC · 13 · 16

42%

Chance

Will mirror reagents or products be added to the Australia Group export control list or national controlled biological agent lists in the U.S., UK, or Canada by 31 December 2032?

Closing Jul 01, 2026 04:00AM UTC · 6 · 9

26%

Chance

Will mirror organisms be formally addressed as a biosecurity concern in official proceedings of at least one of the following international forums (BWC Review Conference, G7/G20 Health/Science ministerial meetings, WHO forums) by 31 December 2030?

Closing Jul 01, 2026 04:00AM UTC · 4 · 8

33%

Chance

Will government agencies in the U.S., EU, or UK classify mirror biology research under dual-use oversight mechanisms by 31 December 2030?

Closing Jul 01, 2026 04:00AM UTC · 6 · 9

29%

Chance

Will scientists successfully create a synthetic cell from chemically synthesized components by 1 January 2035?

Closing Jul 01, 2026 04:00AM UTC · 14 · 21

4%

Chance

According to U.S. Customs and Border Protection, will the U.S. seize at least 50,000 pounds of drugs in July 2025?

Closing Aug 01, 2025 03:59AM UTC · 117 · 142

45%

Chance

According to U.S. Customs and Border Protection, will there be at least 37 million inbound travelers to the U.S. in July 2025?

Closing Aug 01, 2025 03:59AM UTC · 111 · 137

18%

Chance

How many global victims of data-leaking ransomware will there be in August 2025, according to Data Breaches Digest?

Closing Sep 01, 2025 03:59AM UTC · 72 · 90

Will the United States and Iran announce a new nuclear deal before 1 August 2025?

Closing Aug 01, 2025 04:00AM UTC · 133 · 197

1%

Chance

Status

Season

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Will scientists be able to assemble a ribosome in vitro, composed entirely of synthetic proteins and RNA, without the use of cell-derived materials by 2030?

19%

Will any major international non-governmental research funders implement specific policies restricting or requiring oversight of mirror biology research by 31 December 2030?

42%

Will mirror reagents or products be added to the Australia Group export control list or national controlled biological agent lists in the U.S., UK, or Canada by 31 December 2032?

26%

Will mirror organisms be formally addressed as a biosecurity concern in official proceedings of at least one of the following international forums (BWC Review Conference, G7/G20 Health/Science ministerial meetings, WHO forums) by 31 December 2030?

33%

Will government agencies in the U.S., EU, or UK classify mirror biology research under dual-use oversight mechanisms by 31 December 2030?

29%

Will scientists successfully create a synthetic cell from chemically synthesized components by 1 January 2035?

4%

According to U.S. Customs and Border Protection, will the U.S. seize at least 50,000 pounds of drugs in July 2025?

45%

According to U.S. Customs and Border Protection, will there be at least 37 million inbound travelers to the U.S. in July 2025?

18%

How many global victims of data-leaking ransomware will there be in August 2025, according to Data Breaches Digest?

Will the United States and Iran announce a new nuclear deal before 1 August 2025?

1%

Status

Season

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Topics

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19%

42%

26%

33%

29%

4%

45%

18%

1%