Will Hezbollah and/or Amal Movement candidates maintain control of all Shia-majority seats in the 2026 Lebanese Parliament?
Started
Dec 19, 2025 05:00PM UTC
Closing Jun 01, 2026 04:00AM UTC
Closing Jun 01, 2026 04:00AM UTC
Topics
Seasons
Lebanon's parliamentary elections are scheduled for May 2026, following a tumultuous period that has significantly weakened Hezbollah's political and military position. Under Lebanon's confessional power-sharing system, 27 of the parliament's 128 seats are constitutionally reserved for Shia Muslim candidates (Wikipedia). In the 2022 parliamentary elections, Hezbollah and its main Shia ally, the Amal Movement led by Parliament Speaker Nabih Berri, retained all 27 Shia seats despite broader losses among their non-Shia allies (NPR, Al Jazeera).
Hezbollah's dominance faces unprecedented challenges ahead of the 2026 elections. The group suffered devastating losses during its 2023-2024 conflict with Israel, including the killing of longtime leader Hassan Nasrallah and much of its top leadership, along with thousands of fighters and significant military infrastructure (Wikipedia). The December 2024 fall of Syrian President Bashar al-Assad's regime severed Hezbollah's critical supply routes and access to an estimated $700 million in annual Iranian funding (Arab Center DC). The January 2025 election of President Joseph Aoun, who has pledged to disarm Hezbollah and consolidate state control over weapons, marked what observers describe as “a manifestation of Hezbollah's diminished influence in Lebanese politics” (Wikipedia).
However, mounting a successful challenge to Hezbollah-Amal control of Shia seats faces substantial obstacles. In 2022, Lebanese Forces candidates withdrew from Shia-dominated areas under reported pressure from Hezbollah and Amal (Wikipedia). Political analysts note that Hezbollah remains “more than ever entrenched in the social aspects and reconstruction” of Shia-majority areas, making independent Shia electoral challenges unlikely (The New Arab). Hezbollah has been actively preparing for the 2026 elections through extensive campaigning since mid-2025 (Alma Research Center).
Resolution Criteria:
This question will resolve using official results from Lebanon's Ministry of Interior and Municipalities for the 2026 parliamentary elections, as reported by major international news outlets (Reuters, Associated Press, Al Jazeera, BBC, AFP) and/or the Lebanese Ministry of Interior's official announcements.
The question will resolve as “Yes” if Hezbollah and/or Amal Movement candidates win all 27 constitutionally allocated Shia seats in the May 2026 parliamentary elections. For this purpose:
- A candidate counts as a Hezbollah or Amal candidate if they run on an official Hezbollah or Amal electoral list, or if they are publicly identified by these parties as their endorsed candidates
- Candidates who run as independents but are widely reported by credible news sources as Hezbollah or Amal proxies or allies will count toward Hezbollah-Amal control
The following will NOT be sufficient for resolution:
- Post-election defections or party switches after the official results are announced
- Unofficial, preliminary, or partial results before the Ministry of Interior's final certification
If electoral law reforms before the election change the total number of Shia seats from the 27 seats under the current confessional system, the question will resolve on whether Hezbollah and/or Amal win all of that new total number of seats.
This question will close for forecasting once elections begin, however RFI will wait to resolve the question until the official results are announced. If elections are postponed or rescheduled, the end date of this question will be extended until the planned new election date. If elections are cancelled or a new date is not set by 31 May 2026 (when elections are currently expected to be held by), then the question will be voided.
If the Ministry of Interior's official results become unavailable or disputed, resolution will be determined by the consensus reporting (agreement of at least 3 out of 5) from the following sources: Reuters, Associated Press, Al Jazeera English, BBC, and Agence France-Presse.