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Geopolitical Security

Closing

Jan 01, 2026 04:59AM UTC (8 months)

Tracking conflict, diplomacy, and strategic developments that shape international stability and regional order.

Question

Crowd Forecast

Will the EU import at least 15 billion cubic meters of natural gas from Russia in any quarter of 2025?

Closing Jan 01, 2026 05:00AM UTC · 16 · 16

7%

Chance

Will at least one European country or the European Union (EU) collectively commit to providing Ukraine with HIMARS-compatible rocket artillery systems or functional substitutes by 31 December 2025?

Closing Jan 01, 2026 05:00AM UTC · 9 · 12

73%

Chance

How much more military aid will European countries allocate to Ukraine compared to the U.S. between 24 January 2022 and 31 December 2025?

Closing Jan 01, 2026 05:00AM UTC · 7 · 10

Will the European “Coalition of the Willing” deploy forces to Ukraine in 2025?

Closing Jan 01, 2026 05:00AM UTC · 25 · 26

3%

Chance

What will the average employment rate in OECD countries be in 2025?

Closing Jan 01, 2026 05:00AM UTC · 17 · 18

If a bilateral ceasefire or peace agreement in the Russo-Ukraine conflict goes into effect in 2025, how long will it last?

Closing Jan 01, 2026 05:00AM UTC · 112 · 297

When will a bilateral ceasefire or peace agreement in the Russo-Ukraine conflict first go into effect?

Closing Jan 01, 2026 05:00AM UTC · 78 · 208

How many German-language disinformation cases originating in pro-Kremlin media will there be between 1 October 2024 and 30 September 2025?

Closing Oct 01, 2025 04:00AM UTC · 101 · 484

Will Egypt experience an economic collapse (as defined by any of the listed scenarios) in the next 12 months?

Closing Jan 01, 2026 05:00AM UTC · 102 · 396

4%

Chance

In the next 18 months, will a Russian government cyber attack occur against energy or transportation infrastructure within a NATO country that produces a kinetic effect, causing physical damage or human casualties?

Closing Jan 01, 2026 05:00AM UTC · 118 · 486

10%

Chance

Geopolitical Security

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Will the EU import at least 15 billion cubic meters of natural gas from Russia in any quarter of 2025?

7%

Will at least one European country or the European Union (EU) collectively commit to providing Ukraine with HIMARS-compatible rocket artillery systems or functional substitutes by 31 December 2025?

73%

How much more military aid will European countries allocate to Ukraine compared to the U.S. between 24 January 2022 and 31 December 2025?

Will the European “Coalition of the Willing” deploy forces to Ukraine in 2025?

3%

What will the average employment rate in OECD countries be in 2025?

If a bilateral ceasefire or peace agreement in the Russo-Ukraine conflict goes into effect in 2025, how long will it last?

When will a bilateral ceasefire or peace agreement in the Russo-Ukraine conflict first go into effect?

How many German-language disinformation cases originating in pro-Kremlin media will there be between 1 October 2024 and 30 September 2025?

Will Egypt experience an economic collapse (as defined by any of the listed scenarios) in the next 12 months?

4%

In the next 18 months, will a Russian government cyber attack occur against energy or transportation infrastructure within a NATO country that produces a kinetic effect, causing physical damage or human casualties?

10%

Geopolitical Security

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7%

73%

3%

4%

10%