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International Diplomacy & Conflict

Closing

Jan 01, 2025 05:00AM UTC (3 months)

From Russia to the South China Sea and around the globe, these questions forecast conflict, diplomatic agreements, and how these events will shape our world.

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Crowd Forecast

In the next 18 months, will a Russian government cyber attack occur against energy or transportation infrastructure within a NATO country that produces a kinetic effect, causing physical damage or human casualties?

Closing Jan 01, 2026 05:00AM UTC · 2 · 2

8%

Chance

Will the Latin American governments listed (Argentina, Bolivia, Ecuador) cease to service their external debt and enter into default before 1 October 2025?

Closing Oct 01, 2025 04:00AM UTC · 2 · 2

Will the sub-Saharan African governments listed (Angola, Kenya, Ethiopia, Nigeria) cease to service their external debt and enter into default before 1 October 2025?

Closing Oct 01, 2025 04:00AM UTC · 1 · 1

Will North Korea conduct a nuclear test within the next six months?

Closing Jan 01, 2026 05:00AM UTC · 5 · 5

77%

Chance

Will the China Coast Guard or PLA Navy attempt to anchor one or more of their vessels on or near one of the disputed maritime features in the South China Sea before 1 January 2025?

Closing Jan 01, 2025 05:00AM UTC · 3 · 3

81%

Chance

Will North Korea engage in kinetic military action against a South Korean vessel, island, or other asset south of the Northern Limit Line in the Yellow Sea in the next six months?

Closing Jan 01, 2026 05:00AM UTC · 3 · 3

30%

Chance

What will be the percent increase in the number of disinformation cases discussing Germany, originating in pro-Kremlin media, between 1 October 2024 and 30 September 2025, compared to the same period one year prior?

Closing Oct 01, 2025 04:00AM UTC · 7 · 11

What will be the risk index score for the perceived threat posed by Russia to Germany in the 2026 Munich Security Report?

Closing Oct 01, 2025 04:00AM UTC · 8 · 13

What will be Germany’s net perception of Ukraine in the 2026 Munich Security Report?

Closing Oct 01, 2025 04:00AM UTC · 7 · 12

Will Wagner Group or Africa Corps deploy to Togo or an additional African country before 1 January 2026?

Closing Jan 01, 2026 05:00AM UTC · 37 · 81