The People's Liberation Army (PLA) has conducted a series of large-scale military exercises around Taiwan since August 2022, with each successive operation expanding in scope and proximity to the island. In December 2025, the PLA conducted "Justice Mission 2025," the largest such exercises to date, involving over 130 aircraft sorties, 14 naval vessels, and coordination with the China Coast Guard (AEI). Taiwan's Ministry of National Defense reported that most PLA Navy and Coast Guard ships entered Taiwan's contiguous zone (12–24 nautical miles from the coast) during these exercises, and live-fire rocket artillery drills on 30 December 2025 landed missiles within the contiguous zone for the first time (Defense News). Earlier in 2025, the "Strait Thunder-2025A" exercise in April also reportedly brought PLA vessels to within 24 nautical miles of Taiwan's coast (Global Taiwan Institute).

PLA exercises have increasingly coincided with perceived political provocations, such as speeches by Taiwan President Lai Ching-te or U.S. arms sales to Taiwan. Chinese propaganda has emphasized that each escalation by "Taiwan independence forces" will be met with stronger countermeasures (NPR). Analysts assess that the PLA is refining military options consistent with General Secretary Xi Jinping's reported instruction for the military to be capable of taking Taiwan by 2027 (Observing China). The trend of PLA forces "closing in" on Taiwan suggests future exercises may continue to test or breach the 24-nautical-mile boundary.

Resolution Criteria:

This question will be resolved using official statements from Taiwan's Ministry of National Defense, credible international news reports (e.g., Reuters, AP, AFP), or analyses from recognized security research institutions (e.g., Center for Strategic and International Studies, American Enterprise Institute, Global Taiwan Institute). The question resolves “Yes” if there is credible reporting that PLA naval vessels, coast guard ships, aircraft, or missiles entered or struck within 24 nautical miles of Taiwan's coast (the contiguous zone) as part of a declared or identified military exercise between 1 February 2026 and 31 July 2026.

The following will not be sufficient for resolution:

• Routine PLA patrols or transits not associated with a named or coordinated exercise
• Vessels or aircraft merely approaching but not entering the 24-nautical-mile zone
• Exercises conducted only around Taiwan's outlying islands (e.g., Kinmen, Matsu) unless specifically within 24 nautical miles of Taiwan's main island