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Quickfire Forecasts

Closing

Oct 02, 2026 09:00PM UTC (10 months)

Build structured judgment and calibration through a rotating set of short-term forecasting questions across a range of topics.

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Crowd Forecast

Will the FDA have authorized a medical device that incorporates LLM-based functionality by 31 March 2026?

Closing Apr 01, 2026 04:00AM UTC · 56 · 82

4%

Chance

Will Sudan’s Rapid Support Forces retake control over Khartoum city by 31 March 2026?

Closing Apr 01, 2026 04:00AM UTC · 40 · 66

3%

Chance

Will the United States government implement new or expanded export controls or restrictions explicitly targeting frontier AI model development by 31 July 2026?

Closing Aug 01, 2026 04:00AM UTC · 35 · 44

12%

Chance

Will any country announce a new national carbon tax or emissions trading system by 31 July 2026?

Closing Aug 01, 2026 04:00AM UTC · 26 · 46

65%

Chance

Will at least two European NATO members sign new, publicly announced major defense procurement contracts (over €1 billion each) with non-European suppliers by 31 July 2026?

Closing Aug 01, 2026 04:00AM UTC · 25 · 42

79%

Chance

How many of the 19 G20 member countries will have recognized the State of Palestine before 1 Feb 2026?

Closing Feb 01, 2026 05:00AM UTC · 37 · 65

Will the EU import at least 19 billion cubic meters of natural gas from Russia in the second half of 2025?

Closing Jan 01, 2026 05:00AM UTC · 34 · 59

0%

Chance

Will the Cambodia-Thailand conflict result in at least 20 deaths between 4 November 2025 and 15 January 2026, inclusive?

Closing Jan 16, 2026 05:00AM UTC · 33 · 59

5%

Chance