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Quickfire Forecasts

Closing

Oct 02, 2026 09:00PM UTC (1 year)

Build structured judgment and calibration through a rotating set of short-term forecasting questions across a range of topics.

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Crowd Forecast

According to U.S. Customs and Border Protection, will the U.S. seize at least 50,000 pounds of drugs in July 2025?

Closing Aug 01, 2025 03:59AM UTC · 10 · 11

44%

Chance

According to U.S. Customs and Border Protection, will there be at least 37 million inbound travelers to the U.S. in July 2025?

Closing Aug 01, 2025 03:59AM UTC · 10 · 11

25%

Chance

How many global victims of data-leaking ransomware will there be in August 2025, according to Data Breaches Digest?

Closing Sep 01, 2025 03:59AM UTC · 6 · 6

Will the United States and Iran announce a new nuclear deal before 1 August 2025?

Closing Aug 01, 2025 04:00AM UTC · 18 · 19

6%

Chance

By 30 September 2025, will the United States announce its intent to withdraw at least 4,500 troops from South Korea?

Closing Oct 01, 2025 03:59AM UTC · 8 · 8

44%

Chance

Will hostilities between Pakistan and India result in at least 100 total uniformed casualties (with at least one death) between 2 June 2025 and 30 September 2025?

Closing Sep 30, 2025 04:00AM UTC · 29 · 31

7%

Chance

Will all NATO members agree to a defense spending target of 5% of GDP by 31 July 2025?

Closing Jul 31, 2025 04:00AM UTC · 54 · 73

60%

Chance

Will Andrew Cuomo win the Democratic mayoral primary for New York City on 24 June 2025 in five rounds or fewer?

Closing Jun 24, 2025 04:00AM UTC · 70 · 84

25%

Chance

How many incidents of political violence will there be in Mexico in August 2025?

Closing Sep 01, 2025 04:00AM UTC · 18 · 18

How many major hurricanes (Category 3 or above) will make landfall in the continental United States between 1 June 2025 and 30 September 2025?

Closing Sep 30, 2025 04:00AM UTC · 34 · 50