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Quickfire Forecasts

Closing

Oct 02, 2026 09:00PM UTC (8 months)

Build structured judgment and calibration through a rotating set of short-term forecasting questions across a range of topics.

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Crowd Forecast

Will Jama'at Nusrat al-Islam wal-Muslimin (JNIM) take control of Bamako, Mali by 1 June 2026?

Closing Jun 02, 2026 03:59AM UTC · 13 · 22

5%

Chance

Will the United Nations Security Council adopt a resolution related to the conflict in Sudan by 1 May 2026?

Closing May 02, 2026 04:00AM UTC · 18 · 29

45%

Chance

Who will win the 2026 Colombian presidential election?

Closing Jun 01, 2026 04:00AM UTC · 18 · 53

Will the FDA have authorized a medical device that incorporates LLM-based functionality by 31 March 2026?

Closing Apr 01, 2026 04:00AM UTC · 78 · 219

2%

Chance

Will Sudan’s Rapid Support Forces retake control over Khartoum city by 31 March 2026?

Closing Apr 01, 2026 04:00AM UTC · 58 · 159

1%

Chance

Will the United States government implement new or expanded export controls or restrictions explicitly targeting frontier AI model development by 31 July 2026?

Closing Aug 01, 2026 04:00AM UTC · 50 · 116

15%

Chance

Will any country announce a new national carbon tax or emissions trading system by 31 July 2026?

Closing Aug 01, 2026 04:00AM UTC · 39 · 98

62%

Chance

Will at least two European NATO members sign new, publicly announced major defense procurement contracts (over €1 billion each) with non-European suppliers by 31 July 2026?

Closing Aug 01, 2026 04:00AM UTC · 36 · 106

89%

Chance