Will Sudan’s Rapid Support Forces retake control over Khartoum city by 31 March 2026?
Started
Nov 04, 2025 02:00PM UTC
Closing Apr 01, 2026 04:00AM UTC
Closing Apr 01, 2026 04:00AM UTC
Seasons
Sudan has been engulfed in a civil war since April 2023 between the Sudanese Armed Forces (SAF), led by General Abdel Fattah al-Burhan, and the paramilitary Rapid Support Forces (RSF), commanded by Mohamed Hamdan Dagalo (known as Hemedti). The conflict began as a power struggle before a planned transition to civilian rule. In March 2025, the SAF recaptured the capital Khartoum from the RSF, which had controlled it since the war's start (Al Jazeera). The RSF still holds most of the western Darfur region and continues to besiege el-Fasher, the SAF's last garrison in Darfur (Al Jazeera).
The war has displaced over 12.4 million people, including more than 3.3 million as refugees in neighboring countries, and claimed tens of thousands of lives. Approximately half of Sudan's population – 25 million people – is facing extreme levels of hunger (UN). In January 2025, the U.S. determined that the RSF and allied militias committed genocide, particularly against ethnic minorities in Darfur, and Sudan is also experiencing its worst cholera outbreak in years (U.S. Department of State, Al Jazeera).
The conflict has drawn significant international involvement, with the UAE accused of arming the RSF while countries like Saudi Arabia, Iran, and Egypt reportedly support the SAF. Both sides have pledged to continue fighting with no peace negotiations currently active, raising fears the war could spread and destabilize neighboring countries like Chad and South Sudan (Crisis Group).
Resolution Criteria:
This question will resolve as "Yes" if, by 11:59 PM ET on 31 March 2026, credible news sources, conflict monitoring organizations, or international organizations report that the city of Khartoum proper (not Khartoum North/Bahri or Omdurman) is now under effective military control by the RSF. Indicators of regained control may include the RSF publicly claiming control without active dispute from the SAF or credible sources, withdrawal or defeat of SAF forces, or RSF establishing checkpoints and operational presence throughout the city.
For this question to resolve "Yes," reports must indicate sustained control, not just temporary incursions or isolated attacks. If the city is divided with both the RSF and SAF controlling different portions or neighborhoods, this resolves as "No." If Khartoum remains actively contested with significant fighting between RSF and SAF as of 31 March 2026, this resolves as "No."