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Quickfire Forecasts

Closing

Oct 02, 2026 09:00PM UTC (8 months)

Build structured judgment and calibration through a rotating set of short-term forecasting questions across a range of topics.

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Crowd Forecast

How many successful orbital launches will SpaceX conduct between 1 February and 31 July 2026, inclusive?

Closing Aug 01, 2026 04:00AM UTC · 4 · 5

Will China’s official youth unemployment rate fall below 15% in any monthly report released by 31 July 2026?

Closing Aug 01, 2026 04:00AM UTC · 6 · 6

43%

Chance

Will China's year-over-year GDP growth rate for Q2 2026 equal or exceed 5.0%, according to the National Bureau of Statistics of China?

Closing Jul 01, 2026 04:00AM UTC · 33 · 62

30%

Chance

Will the United Nations deploy peacekeeping forces to a conflict zone in a new country or territory by 31 July 2026?

Closing Aug 01, 2026 04:00AM UTC · 50 · 78

2%

Chance

Will any national government publicly declare that Artificial General Intelligence (AGI) has been achieved within that country by 31 July 2026?

Closing Aug 01, 2026 04:00AM UTC · 48 · 97

1%

Chance

Will an AI-enabled cyber-attack, attributed to a state actor, cause significant disruption to critical national infrastructure in any G20 country before 1 July 2026?

Closing Jul 01, 2026 04:00AM UTC · 26 · 62

17%

Chance

Will any branch of the U.S. military have hypersonic weapons operationally deployed with field units, aboard naval vessels, or on aircraft by 30 April 2026?

Closing May 01, 2026 04:00AM UTC · 19 · 55

35%

Chance

Will the Houthis (Ansarallah movement) attack a commercial shipping vessel on the Red Sea between 19 December 2025 and 31 July 2026, inclusive?

Closing Aug 01, 2026 04:00AM UTC · 15 · 20

75%

Chance

Will Hezbollah and its March 8 coalition allies win a majority of seats in the 2026 Lebanese Parliamentary elections?

Closing Jun 01, 2026 04:00AM UTC · 9 · 13

26%

Chance

Will Hezbollah and/or Amal Movement candidates maintain control of all Shia-majority seats in the 2026 Lebanese Parliament?

Closing Jun 01, 2026 04:00AM UTC · 7 · 12

74%

Chance