Will Hezbollah and its March 8 coalition allies win a majority of seats in the 2026 Lebanese Parliamentary elections?
Started
Dec 19, 2025 05:00PM UTC
Closing Jun 01, 2026 04:00AM UTC
Closing Jun 01, 2026 04:00AM UTC
Topics
Seasons
Lebanon's 128-seat Parliament is divided evenly between Christians and Muslims under the country's confessional political system (Council on Foreign Relations). The March 8 coalition, which includes Hezbollah, the Amal Movement, and historically the Free Patriotic Movement, secured approximately 70 seats in the 2018 elections, achieving a majority (EveryCRSReport). However, in the 2022 elections, the pro-Hezbollah bloc won only 58 seats, falling short of the 65 needed for a majority (Al Jazeera).
Since 2022, Hezbollah's position has weakened considerably. The 2024 conflict with Israel killed Secretary-General Hassan Nasrallah and approximately 3,800 fighters, significantly degrading the organization's capabilities (Wikipedia). The December 2024 fall of Syrian President Bashar al-Assad removed a critical ally. In October 2024, the Free Patriotic Movement ended its nearly two-decade alliance with Hezbollah (Asharq Al-Awsat). In January 2025, Lebanon elected President Joseph Aoun and Prime Minister Nawaf Salam—neither Hezbollah's preferred candidates—marking what observers called “a manifestation of Hezbollah's diminished influence” (Wikipedia). Parliamentary elections are scheduled for May 2026 (Wikipedia).
Resolution Criteria:
This question will be resolved using official results published by Lebanon's Ministry of Interior and Municipalities. The Ministry typically announces official parliamentary election results within 48-72 hours following the vote (IFES).
For resolution purposes, the March 8 coalition is defined as seats won by the following parties and blocs. This list is fixed and will not change even if parties leave or join the actual March 8 coalition before the elections:
- Hezbollah's Loyalty to the Resistance bloc
- Amal Movement's Development and Liberation bloc
- Marada Movement
- Syrian Social Nationalist Party (SSNP)
- Tashnag (Armenian Revolutionary Federation)
- Independent MPs who run on electoral lists that are explicitly endorsed by, affiliated with, or include candidates from Hezbollah and/or Amal Movement
Independent MPs will count toward the March 8 total only if they meet one of these criteria:
- They ran on an electoral list that was publicly endorsed by Hezbollah or Amal leadership
- They ran on an electoral list that included Hezbollah or Amal candidates
- Official election results or major Lebanese news sources (L'Orient Today, The Daily Star, An-Nahar) explicitly identify them as part of the March 8 coalition or pro-Hezbollah bloc
The question will resolve as “Yes” if the above-defined March 8 coalition parties collectively win 65 or more seats in the 2026 Parliamentary elections.
This question will close for forecasting once elections begin, however RFI admins will wait to resolve the question until the official results are announced. If elections are postponed or rescheduled, the end date of this question will be extended until the planned new election date. If elections are cancelled or a new date is not set by 31 May 2026, then the question will be voided.