Will the Houthis (Ansarallah movement) attack a commercial shipping vessel on the Red Sea between 19 December 2025 and 31 July 2026, inclusive?
Started
Dec 19, 2025 05:00PM UTC
Closing Aug 01, 2026 04:00AM UTC
Closing Aug 01, 2026 04:00AM UTC
Topics
Seasons
The Iran-backed Houthi movement, also known as Ansarallah, has conducted a sustained maritime campaign against commercial shipping in the Red Sea since November 2023, claiming solidarity with Palestinians during the Israel-Hamas war. From November 2023 through October 2024, the Houthis launched nearly 190 attacks against commercial and naval vessels, expanding their target criteria in phases to include any ships with direct or indirect links to Israel, the U.S., or the United Kingdom (House of Commons Library). The campaign has killed at least nine mariners, sunk four vessels, and caused global shipping companies to reroute around Africa's Cape of Good Hope, disrupting approximately $1 trillion in annual Red Sea trade (Al Jazeera).
The Houthis paused attacks following a ceasefire between Israel and Hamas that took effect on 16 January 2025, but resumed their campaign in July 2025 with deadly coordinated strikes that sank the MV Magic Seas on 6 July and MV Eternity C on 7-8 July, killing several crew members (Human Rights Watch). As of November 2025, the Houthis have indicated they have again halted their maritime attacks in an undated letter to Hamas's military wing, stating they are “closely monitoring developments” and will resume attacks if Israel resumes aggression against Gaza (Al Jazeera, Maritime Executive).
Resolution Criteria:
This question will resolve as “Yes” if credible reports from major news outlets, maritime security organizations, or official government sources confirm that Houthi forces attacked at least one commercial shipping vessel in the Red Sea on or after 19 December 2025 and on or before 31 July 2026.
For the purposes of this question:
- “Houthis” refers to the Ansarallah movement, the Yemen-based armed group that controls much of northwestern Yemen including Sanaa. Attacks must be attributed to or claimed by Houthi forces.
- “Commercial shipping vessel” means any merchant vessel engaged in commercial trade, including but not limited to cargo ships, container ships, bulk carriers, tankers, and vehicle carriers. Military vessels, naval warships, or private yachts not engaged in commercial activity will not count towards resolution.
- “Attack” means a deliberate hostile kinetic action by Houthi forces directed at a commercial vessel, including but not limited to: missile strikes, drone attacks, armed boarding, gunfire, explosive boat attacks, or other weapons deployment. The attack does not need to result in damage or casualties to count for resolution. Attempted attacks that are intercepted by defensive systems (e.g., naval forces shooting down incoming missiles or drones before they reach the vessel) count as attacks for the purposes of this question.
The following will NOT be sufficient for resolution:
- Attacks on vessels in the Gulf of Aden, Arabian Sea, Mediterranean Sea, or other bodies of water outside the Red Sea
- Attacks on military vessels, naval ships, or warships
- Attacks by other groups or actors that are not attributed to the Houthis
- Unverified Houthi claims without corroboration from credible independent sources
- Mechanical failures, accidents, or non-hostile incidents
- Houthi threats, warnings, surveillance, communications jamming, or electronic interference without weapons deployment