Will any national government publicly declare that Artificial General Intelligence (AGI) has been achieved within that country by 31 July 2026?
Started
Dec 19, 2025 05:00PM UTC
Closing Aug 01, 2026 04:00AM UTC
Closing Aug 01, 2026 04:00AM UTC
Topics
Seasons
Artificial General Intelligence refers to AI systems that match or surpass human capabilities across virtually all cognitive tasks. Several prominent AI company executives have made bold predictions about AGI's imminent arrival. In January 2025, OpenAI CEO Sam Altman stated the company is “confident we know how to build AGI,” while Anthropic CEO Dario Amodei suggested that advanced AI could arrive as early as 2026, and Google DeepMind CEO Demis Hassabis expects AGI between 2030 and 2035 (AGI Report Card). Forecasts from AI researchers have shifted dramatically, with median predictions moving from the 2040s in 2020 to around 2030 as of 2025 (AGI Report Card).
Major AI powers including the United States and China have released competing action plans for AI development and governance in 2025. In July 2025, the Trump administration released “Winning the AI Race: America's AI Action Plan,” followed three days later by China's “Global AI Governance Action Plan” (ANSI, Atlantic Council). Both countries have emphasized AI as critical to national competitiveness and security, though neither has claimed to achieve AGI. The U.S. plan focuses on maintaining AI leadership through private enterprise and democratic alliances, while China's plan emphasizes state-led development and international governance standards (Atlantic Council).
Resolution Criteria:
This question will resolve as “Yes” if, by 31 July 2026, a representative from a national government publicly declares or announces that Artificial General Intelligence has been achieved, developed, or created by that government, a government entity, or an organization based in or affiliated with that country.
Resolution timing will be determined based on when the declaration is made, not when the government claims the AGI system was developed or became operational.
For this question to resolve as “Yes,” ALL of the following conditions must be met:
- The declaration must come from an official government source, such as a head of state, head of government, cabinet minister, ministry, government agency, or official government spokesperson speaking in their official capacity
- The declaration must be publicly accessible through government websites, official press releases, public speeches, or credible major news reporting
- The declaration must explicitly use the term “Artificial General Intelligence” or “AGI” when announcing the achievement
- The declaration must clearly claim that AGI has been achieved, developed, created, or successfully demonstrated by that government, a government-operated entity, or an organization based in or affiliated with that country (phrases such as “we have achieved AGI,” “Our country has developed AGI,” "OpenAI has achieved AGI" from a U.S. official, or "DeepSeek has created AGI" from a Chinese official would qualify). The statement must be presented as a formal announcement or major claim of achievement
The following will NOT be sufficient for “Yes” resolution:
- Statements from private companies, research institutions, universities, or individual researchers, even if they claim to have achieved AGI
- Government statements about AI capabilities that do not use the specific term “AGI” or “Artificial General Intelligence”
- Government announcements of plans, goals, or timelines to achieve AGI in the future
- Government funding announcements, policy frameworks, or regulatory measures related to AGI that do not claim current achievement
- Government declarations of achieving “advanced AI,” “superintelligence,” “transformative AI,” or similar terms without explicitly using “AGI” or “Artificial General Intelligence”
- Statements from government officials speaking in a personal capacity rather than as official government representatives
- Casual, off-hand, or speculative references to AI systems without explicitly claiming AGI achievement (e.g., “this could be AGI,” “this is practically AGI,” “our AGI research program,” or similar non-declarative usage)
- Government acknowledgments that AGI has been achieved elsewhere without claiming credit or association with their own country (e.g., a French official stating "The United States has achieved AGI" would not count)
This question will be resolved using major international news sources and official government sources.
Note on definitional ambiguity: There is no universally accepted definition of “the AGI threshold.” Prominent frameworks define AGI differently: Google DeepMind researchers proposed a levels-based framework where “Level 2 AGI” means performance equal to or somewhat better than an unskilled human across a wide range of non-physical tasks (arXiv); OpenAI's charter defines AGI as systems that outperform humans at most economically valuable work (arXiv); and the ARC Prize Foundation defines AGI achievement as closing the gap between tasks that are easy for humans but hard for AI (ARC Prize). An OpenAI employee claimed in 2024 that the company had already achieved AGI based on a definition of being “better than most humans at most tasks,” though this sparked debate as it differed from traditional standards (Wikipedia). This question resolves based on whether a government makes the declaration using the term “AGI” or “Artificial General Intelligence,” NOT on whether the technical community agrees that AGI was actually achieved. Forecasters should consider both the likelihood of technical progress toward AGI AND the political incentives for governments to make such declarations, even if controversial or disputed by experts.