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Emerging Technology

Closing

Jan 01, 2026 04:59AM UTC (8 months)

Forecasting breakthroughs, regulations, and risks at the cutting edge of AI, biotechnology, and other transformative technologies.

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Crowd Forecast

Will China implement new national-level measures that regulate AI development or restrict its use in 2025?

Closing Jan 01, 2026 05:00AM UTC · 15 · 17

61%

Chance

Will the U.S. federal government enact legislation that substantively regulates or authorizes regulation of artificial intelligence systems or their development before 1 January 2026?

Closing Jan 01, 2026 05:00AM UTC · 24 · 29

4%

Chance

Will the United States implement new or expanded export controls on advanced AI chips, cloud access to AI computing, and/or AI model weights in 2025?

Closing Jan 01, 2026 05:00AM UTC · 18 · 27

61%

Chance

What will the Artificial Analysis Intelligence Index score for OpenAI’s highest scoring model be on 31 December 2025?

Closing Dec 31, 2025 05:00AM UTC · 9 · 13

What will the Artificial Analysis Intelligence Index score for DeepSeek’s highest scoring model be on 31 December 2025?

Closing Dec 31, 2025 05:00AM UTC · 8 · 17

Will human bioengineering activities cause a biological event of high consequence (pandemic, panzootic, or epiphytotic) before 1 January 2030?

Closing Jan 01, 2030 05:00AM UTC · 108 · 303

8%

Chance

On 31 May 2025, will Nvidia be the world’s most valuable company by market cap?

Closing May 31, 2025 04:00AM UTC · 204 · 1385

4%

Chance

Will Huawei sell or announce plans to sell Open RAN equipment before 1 January 2027?

Closing Jan 01, 2027 05:00AM UTC · 70 · 610

7%

Chance

Will the O-RAN Alliance’s specifications be integrated into 3GPP before 1 January 2027?

Closing Jan 01, 2027 05:00AM UTC · 35 · 314

Will a collaboration between Huawei and the O-RAN Alliance be announced before 1 October 2025?

Closing Oct 01, 2025 04:00AM UTC · 74 · 757

1%

Chance