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Emerging Technology

Closing

Jan 01, 2026 04:59AM UTC (20 days)

Forecasting breakthroughs, regulations, and risks at the cutting edge of AI, biotechnology, and other transformative technologies.

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Crowd Forecast

Will the FDA have authorized a medical device that incorporates LLM-based functionality by 31 March 2026?

Closing Apr 01, 2026 04:00AM UTC · 57 · 86

3%

Chance

Will the United States government implement new or expanded export controls or restrictions explicitly targeting frontier AI model development by 31 July 2026?

Closing Aug 01, 2026 04:00AM UTC · 35 · 48

13%

Chance

Before 1 January 2029, will either the U.S. or UK enact a law granting tax incentives to companies that pass an independent security audit for their AI models?

Closing Jan 01, 2029 05:00AM UTC · 39 · 78

20%

Chance

Will a U.S. or non-U.S. entity train an artificial intelligence model at least 10^27 computational operations (FLOPs) before 1 June 2027?

Closing Jun 01, 2027 04:00AM UTC · 37 · 95

Will human bioengineering activities cause a biological event of high consequence (pandemic, panzootic, or epiphytotic) before 1 January 2030?

Closing Jan 01, 2030 05:00AM UTC · 122 · 843

7%

Chance