Will human bioengineering activities cause a biological event of high consequence (pandemic, panzootic, or epiphytotic) before 1 January 2030?

Started Feb 03, 2025 08:00PM UTC
Closing Jan 01, 2030 05:00AM UTC
Seasons

Bioengineering involves manipulating biological systems, often using techniques like CRISPR, to modify organisms for various purposes, including disease prevention and agricultural enhancement (McKinsey). While bioengineering offers potential benefits, it also raises significant risks, such as unintended consequences on ecosystems and human health (World Economic Forum, Gates Cambridge).

The possibility of engineered pathogens causing biological events of high consequence—such as pandemics, panzootics (animal disease outbreaks), or epiphytotics (plant disease outbreaks)—raises serious public health and safety concerns (University of Maryland). Accidental releases from laboratories or intentional use as biological weapons by state or non-state actors could lead to widespread disease outbreaks with devastating impacts on populations and ecosystems (U.S. Department of Defense, Observer Research Foundation, World Health Organization). Regulatory frameworks and ethical considerations are critical in managing these risks, as the consequences of a biological event can be profound and far-reaching (Carnegie Endowment). However, the dual-use dilemma, where bioengineering research could be used for both beneficial and malicious purposes, makes governance of the scientific community more difficult (Defence Against Bioterrorism, Bulletin of the World Health Organization).


Resolution Criteria:

For the biological event to be considered caused by “human bioengineering activities,” it must be the result of an engineered biological entity causing widespread disease. The release of the relevant biological entity can be accidental (such as a lab incident) or intentional (such as a biological weapon released by a state or non-state actor). High consequence events which occur due to biological entities that already exist in their current form outside of a laboratory setting will not count.

We will consider the following situations to be biological events of high consequence: 
To determine the origin of the high consequence event and confirm direct attribution to human activities, the RFI team will rely on broad scientific consensus, and require at least two declarations from the following sources for resolution. Note that here we provide some examples of how the declaration may be presented, however the actual declaration itself may vary:
Alternatively, an admission from the party responsible for engineering the pathogen (e.g., the lab it leaked from or actor who intentionally released it) would be considered enough to resolve on its own, provided the admission is credible.

Scientists would likely use tools like genetic sequence analysis or other forensic techniques to find indicators that the biological entity has been bioengineered. We understand that any findings may not be definitively conclusive, but we will make a determination based on whether such reputable sources find it highly likely that the biological event was caused by human bioengineering activity. Biological events that occurred before the start of this question will not be considered. Consequently, any findings on the origins of the COVID-19 pandemic will not count towards resolution. 

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