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Emerging Technology

Closing

Jan 01, 2026 04:59AM UTC (20 days)

Forecasting breakthroughs, regulations, and risks at the cutting edge of AI, biotechnology, and other transformative technologies.

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Crowd Forecast

Will mirror reagents or products be added to the Australia Group export control list or national controlled biological agent lists in the U.S., UK, or Canada by 31 December 2032?

Closing Jul 01, 2026 04:00AM UTC · 20 · 108

29%

Chance

Will mirror organisms be formally addressed as a biosecurity concern in official proceedings of at least one of the following international forums (BWC Review Conference, G7/G20 Health/Science ministerial meetings, WHO forums) by 31 December 2030?

Closing Jul 01, 2026 04:00AM UTC · 25 · 123

64%

Chance

Will government agencies in the U.S., EU, or UK classify mirror biology research under dual-use oversight mechanisms by 31 December 2030?

Closing Jul 01, 2026 04:00AM UTC · 28 · 141

45%

Chance

Will scientists successfully create a synthetic cell from chemically synthesized components by 1 January 2035?

Closing Jul 01, 2026 04:00AM UTC · 44 · 172

10%

Chance

Will the U.S. federal government enact legislation that substantively regulates or authorizes regulation of artificial intelligence systems or their development before 1 January 2026?

Closing Jan 01, 2026 05:00AM UTC · 98 · 530

1%

Chance

Will the United States implement new or expanded export controls on advanced AI chips, cloud access to AI computing, and/or AI model weights in 2025?

Closing Jan 01, 2026 05:00AM UTC · 66 · 380

10%

Chance

Will human bioengineering activities cause a biological event of high consequence (pandemic, panzootic, or epiphytotic) before 1 January 2030?

Closing Jan 01, 2030 05:00AM UTC · 122 · 843

7%

Chance

Will Huawei sell or announce plans to sell Open RAN equipment before 1 January 2027?

Closing Jan 01, 2027 05:00AM UTC · 79 · 977

3%

Chance

Will the O-RAN Alliance’s specifications be integrated into 3GPP before 1 January 2027?

Closing Jan 01, 2027 05:00AM UTC · 38 · 534