Will mirror reagents or products be added to the Australia Group export control list or national controlled biological agent lists in the U.S., UK, or Canada by 31 December 2032?
Started
Jun 25, 2025 09:00PM UTC
Closing Jul 01, 2026 04:00AM UTC
Closing Jul 01, 2026 04:00AM UTC
Mirror biology refers to hypothetical life forms where essential molecules like DNA, RNA, and proteins have opposite handedness (chirality) compared to natural life (The Chemical Engineer, RAND). Scientists have begun early work toward creating mirror bacteria (synthetic organisms where all molecules have reversed chirality), though the capability is at least a decade away (Wyss Institute, Astrobiology). Scientists have also raised concerns about mirror life, with some advocating for a moratorium on creating mirror organisms until safety can be demonstrated, as mirror bacteria could potentially evade the immune defenses of humans, animals, and plants, and escape natural predators in the environment, making them capable of acting as invasive species that could irreversibly disrupt ecosystems and cause infections that existing antibiotics may not be able to treat (Nature, Science, Axios).
Many jurisdictions maintain lists of controlled biological agents or have committees providing recommendations on special handling, licensing, or export controls. The Australia Group coordinates export controls on dual-use biological equipment and agents among 42 countries and the EU, with recent 2024 meetings discussing emerging biotechnologies including synthetic biology advances (Australia Group). Individual countries maintain domestic controlled agent lists like the U.S. Federal Select Agent List, which underwent updates in December 2024 removing some agents while maintaining others (Federal Register). Some organizations have already published policy recommendations for preventing mirror organism creation, including potential regulatory changes under existing federal select agent programs and export controls (RAND). The recent high-profile warnings from leading scientists may accelerate policy discussions and regulatory responses across multiple jurisdictions simultaneously, despite the technology remaining years from practical implementation.
Resolution Criteria:
This is an unscored question that closes for forecasting on 1 July 2026. Although this is an unscored question, we outline the theoretical resolution criteria here.
This question will resolve as "Yes" if, by 31 December 2032, at least one of these jurisdictions add mirror organisms to their controlled frameworks:
Australia Group Export Controls:
- Official Australia Group guidelines addressing mirror biology reagents or products export controls
- Formal Australia Group Common Control list amendments including mirror reagents or products
United States: Federal Select Agent List amendments including mirror reagents or products
United Kingdom: ACDP hazard group classifications or equivalent controlled lists including mirror reagents or products
Canada: Human Pathogens and Toxins Act List including mirror reagents or products
The following will qualify for a “Yes” resolution:
- Specific mirror compounds, materials
- Broad classifications explicitly encompassing mirror biology
- Mirror-specific biological agents, toxins, or export-controlled equipment
The following will not qualify for a “Yes” resolution:
- General synthetic biology regulations not specifically addressing mirror biology
- Voluntary guidelines without regulatory enforcement
- Sub-national classifications without federal/national adoption
- Academic or advisory recommendations without official government implementation