Will scientists successfully create a synthetic cell from chemically synthesized components by 1 January 2035?
Started
Jun 25, 2025 09:00PM UTC
Closing Jul 01, 2026 04:00AM UTC
Closing Jul 01, 2026 04:00AM UTC
The creation of synthetic cells represents one of the most ambitious goals in bottom-up synthetic biology, aiming to construct living systems entirely from chemically synthesized molecular components rather than modifying existing biological cells (i.e., top-down synthetic biology) (Trends in Biotechnology, Science Direct, Physical Biology). Researchers are getting closer to creating a fully synthetic, living cell from scratch, which would have the potential to revolutionize biology, medicine, and biotechnology (NIST). This bottom-up approach involves the step-by-step chemical synthesis of a living system de novo (i.e., “from scratch”), using isolated or synthesized molecules to create membranes, genetic material, and proteins to carry out the functions of a cell (ACS Synthetic Biology). The field has gained significant momentum recently, with scientists making progress over the past decade on fabricating an entire cell from nonliving molecules and materials, and publications on "bottom-up synthetic biology” specifically have increased between 2008 and 2022 (Phys.org, ScienceDirect).
The synthetic cell research landscape has become increasingly organized and collaborative, with major international initiatives like the European Synthetic Cell Initiative and the Asian Synthetic Cell Initiative working to advance synthetic cell research around the world. Synthetic cell research is advancing rapidly, with scientists now able to construct cell-like systems from the bottom up that mimic key biological functions, such as responding to chemical cues and assembling basic cellular components like membranes and organelles (Hopkins Medicine, NSF). While current synthetic cells are not yet fully "alive," ongoing breakthroughs are deepening our understanding of life's fundamental principles and enabling new applications in medicine, biotechnology, and even astrobiology, though challenges remain in achieving full cellular complexity and ensuring biosafety (Interface Focus, NASA).
Resolution Criteria:
This is an unscored question that closes for forecasting on 1 July 2026. Although this is an unscored question, we outline the theoretical resolution criteria here.
This question will resolve "Yes" if, by 1 January 2035, credible scientific evidence is published demonstrating the successful creation of a synthetic cell. The synthetic cell must meet all of the following criteria:
- Fully synthetic construction: The cell must be assembled entirely from chemically synthesized components (proteins, nucleic acids, lipids, metabolites) rather than being derived from or containing components extracted from existing naturally-occurring cells
- Self-sustaining life: The synthetic cell must demonstrate:
- Active metabolism (energy production and consumption)
- Self-replication capability (ability to divide and produce viable offspring cells)
- Independent viability: The cell must survive and function in a defined medium in standard cell culture conditions
RFI admins will use evidence from peer-reviewed scientific journals, institutional preprint servers (e.g., arXiv, bioRxiv), official announcements from recognized research institutions, and reports from established scientific news outlets. The evidence must include methodology and results that are described in enough detail to allow for scientific evaluation.
The creation of the following will not count towards resolution:
- Cells that are primarily composed of natural cellular components with only minor synthetic modifications
- Cells that require exotic or highly artificial conditions to maintain viability
- Protocells or cell-like structures that lack the full complement of life processes listed above