Will mirror organisms be formally addressed as a biosecurity concern in official proceedings of at least one of the following international forums (BWC Review Conference, G7/G20 Health/Science ministerial meetings, WHO forums) by 31 December 2030?
Started
Jun 25, 2025 09:00PM UTC
Closing Jul 01, 2026 04:00AM UTC
Closing Jul 01, 2026 04:00AM UTC
Mirror biology refers to hypothetical life forms where essential molecules like DNA, RNA, and proteins have opposite handedness (chirality) compared to natural life (The Chemical Engineer, RAND). Scientists have begun early work toward creating mirror bacteria (synthetic organisms where all molecules have reversed chirality), though the capability is at least a decade away (Wyss Institute, Astrobiology). Scientists have also raised concerns about mirror life, with some advocating for a moratorium on creating mirror organisms until safety can be demonstrated, as mirror bacteria could potentially evade the immune defenses of humans, animals, and plants, and escape natural predators in the environment, making them capable of acting as invasive species that could irreversibly disrupt ecosystems and cause infections that existing antibiotics may not be able to treat (Nature, Science, Axios).
The Biological Weapons Convention holds review conferences approximately every five years, with the 9th Review Conference having concluded in December 2022, making the 10th Review Conference likely in 2027 (Arms Control Association). The WHO has previously convened expert groups on synthetic biology implications, including a 2015 advisory group on synthetic biology and smallpox risks (WHO). G7 and G20 health and science ministerial meetings regularly address biotechnology governance, with upcoming meetings including the G20 Health Ministers' Meeting in South Africa in November 2025 (OECD, German Ministry of Health). Recent policy analysis suggests that current oversight frameworks may not be sufficient for addressing mirror life biosafety and biosecurity concerns, potentially requiring new oversight authorities (Congress.gov).
Resolution Criteria:
This is an unscored question that closes for forecasting on 1 July 2026. Although this is an unscored question, we outline the theoretical resolution criteria here.
This question will resolve as "Yes" if, by 31 December 2030, mirror organisms are formally addressed in official proceedings of at least one of these forums:
- Biological Weapons Convention (BWC) including Review Conferences, consultations, or working papers
- G7/G20 Health/Science Ministerials including communiqués, working group reports, or joint statements
- World Health Organization (WHO) including, Assembly resolutions, expert committee reports, or guidance documents
The following will qualify for a “Yes” resolution:
- Official meeting documents, transcripts, or communiqués
- Formal diplomatic communications through established channels
- Published bilateral or multilateral agreements
The following will not qualify for a “Yes” resolution:
- Informal discussions or side conversations
- Academic presentations without official government endorsement
- Media statements without formal policy process documentation
- General synthetic biology discussions not specifically addressing mirror organisms