Will China's year-over-year GDP growth rate for Q2 2026 equal or exceed 5.0%, according to the National Bureau of Statistics of China?
Started
Dec 19, 2025 05:00PM UTC
Closing Jul 01, 2026 04:00AM UTC
Closing Jul 01, 2026 04:00AM UTC
Topics
Seasons
China's economic performance has remained a focal point for global markets as the world's second-largest economy navigates challenges including U.S. trade tensions, a prolonged property sector downturn, and persistent deflationary pressures. In 2025, China set a growth target of "around 5%" and is on track to meet this goal, with GDP expanding 5.2% year-over-year in Q2 2025 and 4.8% in Q3 2025 (National Bureau of Statistics of China, China Briefing). The government achieved these results through monetary easing, consumer trade-in subsidies, and increased fiscal spending, though underlying concerns persist about weak domestic demand and excess manufacturing capacity.
For 2026, China is widely expected to maintain its growth target at around 5%, marking the first year of its 15th Five-Year Plan (Reuters). Government advisers have indicated this target will require continued fiscal and monetary support as Beijing seeks to end a multi-year deflationary cycle and shift toward more consumption-driven growth. Economists project GDP growth of 4.4-4.8% for 2026, with considerable uncertainty around external trade conditions and the effectiveness of stimulus measures (Goldman Sachs, ASEAN+3 Macroeconomic Research Office). The Q2 2026 reading will provide critical insight into whether China can maintain momentum in the early stages of its new development plan.
Resolution Criteria:
This question will resolve based on the official year-over-year GDP growth rate for Q2 2026 (April-June 2026) as published in the preliminary accounting results by the National Bureau of Statistics of China (NBS). This question will resolve as "Yes" if the National Bureau of Statistics of China reports that China's year-over-year GDP growth rate for Q2 2026 equals or exceeds 5.0%. Based on historical patterns, the "Preliminary Accounting Results of GDP" press release for Q2 2026 is likely to be released in mid-July, following the end of the quarter.
For the purposes of this question:
- "Year-over-year GDP growth rate" refers to the percentage change in real GDP compared to the same quarter of the previous year (Q2 2026 compared to Q2 2025), measured at constant prices
- "Equal or exceed 5.0%" means the growth rate must be greater than or equal to 5.0% for the question to resolve as "Yes". If the NBS reports the growth rate as 4.9% or lower, the question resolves as "No".