Will China’s official youth unemployment rate fall below 15% in any monthly report released by 31 July 2026?
Started
Jan 29, 2026 08:00PM UTC
Closing Aug 01, 2026 04:00AM UTC
Closing Aug 01, 2026 04:00AM UTC
Topics
Seasons
China's National Bureau of Statistics (NBS) resumed publishing youth unemployment data in January 2024 after a six-month suspension, using a revised methodology that excludes students from the 16–24 age group (Statista). Under the previous methodology, youth unemployment reached a record 21.3% in June 2023 before reporting was halted (Atlantic Council). The revised series began at 14.9% in December 2023 and reached a low of 13.2% in June 2024. The revised series peaked at 18.9% in August 2025 as a record 12.2 million university graduates entered the job market, then declined to 16.5% by December 2025 (Trading Economics).
Youth unemployment in China follows a seasonal pattern, typically rising during the summer months when fresh graduates flood the labor market and declining in the fall and winter. Structural challenges persist, including a mismatch between graduate skills and labor market demand, a real estate sector downturn, and subdued private-sector confidence (SCMP, Newsweek). The NBS releases unemployment data monthly, typically around mid-month.
Resolution Criteria:
This question will be resolved using data published by China's National Bureau of Statistics (NBS). Monthly unemployment data are accessible via the NBS English-language website under the “The Urban Surveyed Unemployment Rate” indicator, listed as "The Urban Surveyed Unemployment Rate of the Population Aged from 16 to 24(%)" in the accompanying table. A graphical visualization is also available at Trading Economics' China Youth Unemployment Rate page, which aggregates official NBS releases.
The question will be resolved as "Yes" if any monthly data youth unemployment data released by NBS between 29 January 2026 and 31 July 2026 (inclusive) reports a surveyed urban unemployment rate for people aged 16 to 24 below 15.0%. Resolution will be based on the initial NBS release; subsequent revisions will not affect resolution.
The following will not be sufficient for resolution:
- Unofficial estimates or projections from third-party sources
- Data calculated using different age ranges or methodologies
- Unemployment rates that include students
Question clarification
Issued on 01/30/26 05:31pm
The background information has been updated to remove an error regarding historical unemployment rate levels under the revised methodology.
The background information has been updated to remove an error regarding historical unemployment rate levels under the revised methodology.